Parma 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cosenza make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie B (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Parma (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Parma's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cosenza's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Parma's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Parma, 1 for Cosenza and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Parma 0–0 Cosenza — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 50% versus Cosenza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 46% | Cosenza 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.40 xG and Cosenza 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.284 / defence 0.970 | Cosenza attack 0.793 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.204. Parma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.284 — their 1.40 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Cosenza's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Parma's last 64 games and Cosenza's last 64.
Result probabilities: Parma 46% | Draw 31% | Cosenza 23%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.17 | Draw 3.26 | Cosenza 4.33. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Parma 90% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 46% | Draw 31% | Cosenza 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Parma 1.40 / Cosenza 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.284 / def 0.970 | Cosenza attack 0.793 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Parma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cosenza xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Cosenza FAQs
What time does Parma vs Cosenza kick off?
Parma vs Cosenza kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Tuesday 27 February 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Cosenza?
Parma 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Parma vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Cosenza part of?
Parma vs Cosenza is a Serie B fixture (matchday 27) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 46% chance of winning, Cosenza a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Parma and Cosenza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Parma vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.28) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.79x) against Parma's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 64 games and Cosenza's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
46%
2.17
31%
3.26
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Parma xG
Total xG
2.33
0.93
Cosenza xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
6%
17.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Cosenza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Parma and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Parma and 0.93 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Parma's recent record stands at 33W 18D 15L from 66 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 18W 22D 26L across 66 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Parma have managed 19W 8D 6L from their last 33 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 6W 11D 16L across their last 33 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.94 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
Parma (Home) vs Cosenza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Parma vs Cosenza Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 33W 18D 15L in their last 66 games (1.77 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 18W 22D 26L in their last 66 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Cosenza away?
Parma's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.97 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Parma or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cosenza in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Parma and Cosenza, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 27 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Parma
3
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Cosenza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cosenza?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Cosenza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2024: Parma 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Cosenza?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 52%, Cosenza 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Parma and 27% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cosenza in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Cosenza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Cosenza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Parma's recent matches and 39% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and Cosenza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Parma's recent games and 27% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Cosenza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Parma's recent matches and 54% of Cosenza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 27, as Parma and Cosenza drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.40 xG and Cosenza 0.93 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.28 / defence 0.97 against Cosenza attack 0.79 / defence 0.84, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 46% | Draw 31% | Cosenza 23%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 46%, Cosenza 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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