Cesena 1-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cesena face Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cesena host Sudtirol at Stadio Dino Manuzzi in Serie B (matchday 33). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cesena have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Cesena have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sudtirol stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sudtirol's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Cesena) versus 1.00 (Sudtirol). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Cesena, 0 for Sudtirol and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Cesena 1–0 Sudtirol — a Cesena win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cesena in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 59% versus Sudtirol 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 47% | Sudtirol 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.37 xG and Sudtirol 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 1.041 / defence 1.314 | Sudtirol attack 1.056 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.104. Cesena's defence rating of 1.314 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sudtirol's projected output up. Data: built from Cesena's last 70 games and Sudtirol's last 70.
Result probabilities: Cesena 33% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 40%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 3.06 | Draw 3.64 | Sudtirol 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Cesena's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cesena 70% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadio Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 33% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Cesena 1.37 / Sudtirol 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 1.041 / def 1.314 | Sudtirol attack 1.056 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Sudtirol xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cesena vs Sudtirol FAQs
What time does Cesena vs Sudtirol kick off?
Cesena vs Sudtirol kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Cesena 1 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Cesena vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Sudtirol part of?
Cesena vs Sudtirol is a Serie B fixture (matchday 33) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 33% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cesena and Sudtirol will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cesena vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cesena's attack rating (1.04) and Sudtirol's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Cesena's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cesena's last 70 games and Sudtirol's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
33%
3.06
27%
3.64
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.90
1.53
Sudtirol xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
7%
14.16
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cesena vs Sudtirol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Cesena and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Cesena and 1.53 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cesena's recent record stands at 25W 18D 27L from 70 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 20W 24D 26L across 70 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cesena on 1.33 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cesena have managed 13W 11D 10L from their last 34 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 9W 12D 13L across their last 34 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cesena are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.20 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
Cesena (Home) vs Sudtirol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cesena
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Cesena vs Sudtirol Form FAQs
What form are Cesena and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 25W 18D 27L in their last 70 games (1.33 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 20W 24D 26L in their last 70 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Sudtirol away?
Cesena's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.47 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Cesena's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Cesena
3
Draws
0
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Cesena vs Sudtirol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Sudtirol?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Cesena have won 2, Sudtirol have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Sudtirol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Sudtirol 1-1 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Sudtirol?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 62%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cesena) and 50% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cesena vs Sudtirol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cesena and Sudtirol matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cesena's games and 50% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cesena and Sudtirol matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cesena's recent games and 50% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Sudtirol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Cesena's recent matches and 71% of Sudtirol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cesena and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 33, as Cesena and Sudtirol drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.37 xG and Sudtirol 1.53 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.04 / defence 1.31 against Sudtirol attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 33% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 40%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 47%, Sudtirol 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.33 PPG, Sudtirol 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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