Cosenza 3-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 10 as Cosenza welcome Ternana to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 3W 2D 4L from 9 Serie B matches — 1.22 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 games at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.22 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have recorded 4W 1D 4L from 9 outings — 1.44 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.78 per game and conceding 1.56. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.22 PPG (Cosenza) versus 1.44 (Ternana). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Cosenza trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ternana trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 44% versus Ternana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 33% | Ternana 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.39 xG and Ternana 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.000 / defence 0.907 | Ternana attack 0.958 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.128. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Cosenza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Cosenza games / 9 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 44% | Draw 31% | Ternana 25%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Ternana 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cosenza 50% | Ternana 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 44% | Draw 31% | Ternana 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Cosenza 1.39 / Ternana 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.000 / def 0.907 | Ternana attack 0.958 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Ternana xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Ternana kick off?
Cosenza vs Ternana kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Ternana?
Cosenza 3 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Cosenza vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Ternana part of?
Cosenza vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 44% chance of winning, Ternana a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cosenza and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Ternana in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.44 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Ternana (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.56 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 1.00x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
44%
2.25
31%
3.24
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.37
0.98
Ternana xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
6%
16.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.98 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza's recent record stands at 3W 2D 4L from 9 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 4L across 9 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.22 PPG, Ternana on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ternana's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ternana's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.78 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Ternana in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Ternana have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Ternana away?
Cosenza's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 2.50 PPG; Ternana away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ternana have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Cosenza's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
2
Draws
3
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Ternana have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Ternana 1-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 50%, Ternana 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Cosenza) and 50% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Cosenza's games and 75% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Cosenza's recent games and 50% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Ternana tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ternana in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Ternana 3-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.39 xG and Ternana 0.98 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Ternana attack 0.96 / defence 1.32, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 44% | Draw 31% | Ternana 25%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 33%, Ternana 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.22 PPG, Ternana 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.