Bari 4-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bari face Reggiana.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reggiana make the trip to Stadio San Nicola to face Bari in Serie B (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bari have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Bari have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reggiana (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Reggiana have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Bari, 0.90 for Reggiana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Bari, 2 for Reggiana and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Bari 1–3 Reggiana — a Reggiana win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 55% versus Reggiana 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 40% | Reggiana 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.02 xG and Reggiana 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.768 / defence 1.109 | Reggiana attack 0.765 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.121. Bari's attack rating of 0.768 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Reggiana's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Bari's last 67 games and Reggiana's last 67.
Result probabilities: Bari 35% | Draw 33% | Reggiana 32%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.82 | Draw 3.07 | Reggiana 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bari 60% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 35% | Draw 33% | Reggiana 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Bari 1.02 / Reggiana 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.768 / def 1.109 | Reggiana attack 0.765 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Bari (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Reggiana xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bari vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Bari vs Reggiana kick off?
Bari vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Reggiana?
Bari 4 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Bari vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Reggiana part of?
Bari vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 30) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 35% chance of winning, Reggiana a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bari and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Bari vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.77) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.77x) against Bari's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Bari's last 67 games and Reggiana's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
35%
2.82
33%
3.07
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Bari xG
Total xG
1.97
0.95
Reggiana xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
12%
8.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bari vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Bari and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Bari and 0.95 for Reggiana, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bari come into this having played 67 games, going 16W 28D 23L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.09 PPG from 67 outings (18W 19D 30L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Bari against 1.09 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bari's home form reads 11W 14D 8L across their last 33 home games, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 33 away games (7W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bari are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.06 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
Bari (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bari
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Bari vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Bari and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 16W 28D 23L in their last 67 games (1.13 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 18W 19D 30L in their last 67 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Reggiana away?
Bari's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.42 PPG; Reggiana away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Bari and Reggiana, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won Bari 4-1 Reggiana on 14 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Reggiana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Bari
3
Draws
2
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Bari vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Reggiana?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Bari have won 1, Reggiana have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Bari 4-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 64%, Reggiana 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bari) and 46% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bari vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bari and Reggiana matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bari's games and 58% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bari and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bari's recent games and 46% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Bari's recent matches and 73% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bari run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Reggiana 4-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.02 xG and Reggiana 0.95 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.77 / defence 1.11 against Reggiana attack 0.77 / defence 1.00, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 35% | Draw 33% | Reggiana 32%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 40%, Reggiana 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.13 PPG, Reggiana 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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