AS Roma 3-0 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lazio make the trip to Stadio Olimpico to face AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Olimpico — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Lazio have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Lazio's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AS Roma lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 2–3 with Lazio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 52% versus Lazio 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 52% | Lazio 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.14 xG and Lazio 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.941 / defence 1.003 | Lazio attack 1.095 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.078 / away 1.286. Data: 29 AS Roma games / 29 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 28% | Draw 32% | Lazio 41%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Lazio 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 40% | Lazio 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 28% | Draw 32% | Lazio 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG AS Roma 1.14 / Lazio 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.941 / def 1.003 | Lazio attack 1.095 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.078 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Lazio (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Lazio xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Lazio kick off?
AS Roma vs Lazio kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Lazio?
AS Roma 3 - 0 Lazio.
Where is AS Roma vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Lazio part of?
AS Roma vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 28% chance of winning, Lazio a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AS Roma and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Lazio?
Record (1 meetings): AS Roma 0W | Draws 0 | Lazio 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Lazio in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Lazio (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (0.94) and Lazio's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (1.09x) against AS Roma's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
28%
3.58
32%
3.17
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.56
1.41
Lazio xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
7%
14.68
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.41 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma's recent record stands at 14W 6D 9L from 29 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 8L across 29 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for AS Roma against 1.69 for Lazio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 8W 4D 3L from 15 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 6W 3D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 2.00 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Lazio in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 14W 6D 9L in their last 29 games (1.66 PPG), while Lazio have gone 14W 7D 8L in their last 29 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Lazio away?
AS Roma's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.87 PPG; Lazio away: 1.40 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lazio in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 3-0 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AS Roma
2
Draws
3
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 5, Lazio have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Lazio?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 40%, Lazio 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for AS Roma and 80% for Lazio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of AS Roma's recent matches and 60% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of AS Roma's matches and 80% of Lazio's.
Do AS Roma and Lazio tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lazio in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lazio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Lazio 3-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.14 xG and Lazio 1.41 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lazio landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Lazio attack 1.09 / defence 1.13, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 28% | Draw 32% | Lazio 41%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual AS Roma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 52%, Lazio 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lazio's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.66 PPG, Lazio 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.