Bologna 0-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Atalanta travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Atalanta — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Atalanta's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 0.90 PPG, Atalanta 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bologna have won 0, Atalanta 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Atalanta trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 46% versus Atalanta 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 54% | Atalanta 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 0.81 xG and Atalanta 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.779 / defence 1.077 | Atalanta attack 0.994 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.276. Bologna's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Bologna games / 28 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 20% | Draw 33% | Atalanta 47%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 5.00 | Draw 3.03 | Atalanta 2.13. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 30% | Atalanta 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 20% | Draw 33% | Atalanta 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Bologna 0.81 / Atalanta 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.779 / def 1.077 | Atalanta attack 0.994 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Atalanta xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Atalanta kick off?
Bologna vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Atalanta?
Bologna 0 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is Bologna vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Atalanta part of?
Bologna vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 20% chance of winning, Atalanta a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bologna and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Atalanta?
Record (1 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 0W.
What form are Bologna and Atalanta in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Atalanta (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.78x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
20%
5.11
33%
3.02
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.17
1.36
Atalanta xG
5.11
20%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
45%
2.25
Win to Nil
5%
20.02
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 15.5 | 10.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bologna and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Bologna and 1.36 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 6D 13L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.71 PPG from 28 outings (13W 9D 6L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 2.14 points per game from 14 outings (9W 3D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.71 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.79 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Atalanta
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 9W 6D 13L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 13W 9D 6L in their last 28 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.50 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Bologna or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Atalanta in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
2
Draws
4
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Atalanta have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Atalanta 0-1 Bologna.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 36%, Atalanta 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bologna) and 57% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 36% of games; Atalanta in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Bologna's recent matches and 57% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bologna's recent games and 57% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Atalanta tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Bologna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Bologna 0-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 0.81 xG and Atalanta 1.36 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bologna fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against Atalanta attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 20% | Draw 33% | Atalanta 47%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 54%, Atalanta 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atalanta's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.