Sampdoria 1-3 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Juventus meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Sampdoria (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Juventus have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Juventus's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Juventus arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Juventus in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sampdoria 0W, Juventus 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 2–3 with Juventus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 57% versus Juventus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 68% | Juventus 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.38 xG and Juventus 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.158 / defence 1.207 | Juventus attack 1.009 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.342. Data: 28 Sampdoria games / 28 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 30% | Draw 29% | Juventus 41%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Juventus 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventus at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 80% | Juventus 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 30% | Draw 29% | Juventus 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Sampdoria 1.38 / Juventus 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.158 / def 1.207 | Juventus attack 1.009 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Juventus (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Juventus xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Juventus kick off?
Sampdoria vs Juventus kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Juventus?
Sampdoria 1 - 3 Juventus.
Where is Sampdoria vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Juventus part of?
Sampdoria vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 30% chance of winning, Juventus a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sampdoria and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Juventus?
Record (1 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 0 | Juventus 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Juventus in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Juventus (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (1.16) and Juventus's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (1.01x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
30%
3.33
29%
3.47
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
3.01
1.63
Juventus xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
6%
17.07
10%
9.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.63 for Juventus, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sampdoria come into this having played 28 games, going 7W 5D 16L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Juventus sit at 1.89 PPG from 28 outings (15W 8D 5L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Juventus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sampdoria's home form reads 4W 3D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventus have taken 1.86 points per game from 14 outings (7W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.50 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Juventus in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 7W 5D 16L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Juventus have gone 15W 8D 5L in their last 28 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.07 PPG; Juventus away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Juventus in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
1
Draws
3
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Juventus?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Juventus have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Juventus 4-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Sampdoria, 64% for Juventus — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Sampdoria and 43% for Juventus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juventus in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Sampdoria's games and 64% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Sampdoria's matches and 43% of Juventus's.
Do Sampdoria and Juventus tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Juventus in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Sampdoria 1-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.38 xG and Juventus 1.63 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Juventus outscored their 1.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.16 / defence 1.21 against Juventus attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 30% | Draw 29% | Juventus 41%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 68%, Juventus 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Juventus's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Sampdoria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.