Udinese vs Venezia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Venezia travel to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Venezia — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Udinese) versus 0.30 (Venezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Udinese, 1 for Venezia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 3–2 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Venezia in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 48% versus Venezia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 48% | Venezia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.19 xG and Venezia 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.689 / defence 1.278 | Venezia attack 0.622 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.464. Udinese's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Udinese games / 10 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 37% | Draw 28% | Venezia 35%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Venezia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 30% | Venezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 37% | Draw 28% | Venezia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Udinese 1.19 / Venezia 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.689 / def 1.278 | Venezia attack 0.622 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Udinese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Venezia xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Venezia kick off?
Udinese vs Venezia is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
Where is Udinese vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Venezia part of?
Udinese vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 37% chance of winning, Venezia a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Udinese and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Venezia?
Record (4 meetings): Udinese 3W | Draws 0 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Udinese and Venezia in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Venezia (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.69) and Venezia's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.58
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.36
1.16
Venezia xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Udinese and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Udinese and 1.16 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 15W 10D 23L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia's form line: 25W 10D 13L from 48 games, 1.77 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Udinese have posted 0.96 PPG from 24 outings (6W 5D 13L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 7W 10D 7L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.73 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Venezia in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 10D 23L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Venezia have gone 25W 10D 13L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 0.96 PPG; Venezia away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Udinese or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Venezia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when Udinese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Udinese
0
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Venezia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Udinese 3-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Venezia?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 38%, Venezia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Udinese) and 50% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Udinese's recent matches and 62% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Udinese's recent games and 50% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Venezia tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Venezia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.