Udinese 0-2 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Torino at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Udinese face Torino.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Torino travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese in Serie A (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Udinese stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 1W 7D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Torino — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Torino's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Udinese 1.00 PPG, Torino 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Udinese, 2 for Torino and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Udinese 1–1 Torino — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Torino in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 54% versus Torino 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Udinese 47% | Torino 32%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Udinese surrender their half-time lead 53% of the time, while Torino have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.11 xG and Torino 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.885 / defence 1.113 | Torino attack 0.824 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.218. Data: built from Udinese's last 66 games and Torino's last 66.
Result probabilities: Udinese 35% | Draw 30% | Torino 35%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.88 | Draw 3.29 | Torino 2.86. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Udinese 35% and Torino 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Udinese 80% (last 10 home games) | Torino 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 29 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 35% | Draw 30% | Torino 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Udinese 1.11 / Torino 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.885 / def 1.113 | Torino attack 0.824 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Udinese and Torino level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Torino xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Torino FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Torino kick off?
Udinese vs Torino kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Torino?
Udinese 0 - 2 Torino.
Where is Udinese vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Torino part of?
Udinese vs Torino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 35% chance of winning, Torino a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Udinese and Torino will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Udinese vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.89x the league average against Torino's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 66 games and Torino's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.29
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.23
1.12
Torino xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Torino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Udinese and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Udinese and 1.12 for Torino, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 66 games, going 15W 28D 23L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Torino sit at 1.38 PPG from 66 outings (23W 22D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.11 PPG, Torino on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 7W 18D 8L across their last 33 home games, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Torino have taken 1.36 points per game from their last 33 away games (12W 9D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.03 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Torino in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Torino
Current Season
Udinese (Home) vs Torino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Current Season
Torino
Current Season
❓ Udinese vs Torino Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Torino in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 28D 23L in their last 66 games (1.11 PPG), while Torino have gone 23W 22D 21L in their last 66 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Torino away?
Torino's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.18 PPG; Torino away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Udinese or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Torino in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 12 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Torino specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Udinese
2
Draws
5
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Torino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Torino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 3, Torino have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Torino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 October 2026: Torino 2-1 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 64%, Torino 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Udinese) and 39% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Torino in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Torino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Torino matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Udinese's games and 52% of Torino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Udinese and Torino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Udinese's recent games and 39% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Torino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Udinese's recent matches and 67% of Torino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Torino cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Udinese 0-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.11 xG and Torino 1.12 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Udinese fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Torino outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Torino attack 0.82 / defence 0.89, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 35% | Draw 30% | Torino 35%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Torino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 47%, Torino 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Torino's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.11 PPG, Torino 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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