Udinese 0-2 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Torino at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Torino travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 games at Bluenergy Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Torino — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Torino's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Udinese 1.00 PPG, Torino 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Udinese, 3 for Torino and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Torino in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 54% versus Torino 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Udinese 47% | Torino 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.11 xG and Torino 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.885 / defence 1.113 | Torino attack 0.824 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.218. Data: 66 Udinese games / 66 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 35% | Draw 30% | Torino 35%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Torino 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Udinese 80% | Torino 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 35% | Draw 30% | Torino 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Udinese 1.11 / Torino 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.885 / def 1.113 | Torino attack 0.824 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Torino xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Torino kick off?
Udinese vs Torino kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Torino?
Udinese 0 - 2 Torino.
Where is Udinese vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Torino part of?
Udinese vs Torino is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 35% chance of winning, Torino a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Udinese and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Torino?
Record (5 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 1 | Torino 3W.
What form are Udinese and Torino in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Torino (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.89x the league average against Torino's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.29
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.23
1.12
Torino xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Udinese and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Udinese and 1.12 for Torino, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 66 games, going 15W 28D 23L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Torino sit at 1.38 PPG from 66 outings (23W 22D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.11 PPG, Torino on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 7W 18D 8L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Torino have taken 1.36 points per game from 33 outings (12W 9D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.03 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Torino in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Torino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Torino in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 28D 23L in their last 66 games (1.11 PPG), while Torino have gone 23W 22D 21L in their last 66 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Torino away?
Torino's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.18 PPG; Torino away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Udinese or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Torino in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Torino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Udinese's record when hosting Torino specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Udinese
2
Draws
5
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Torino have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Udinese 2-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 64%, Torino 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Udinese) and 39% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Torino in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Torino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Udinese's games and 52% of Torino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Udinese's recent games and 39% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Torino tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Torino in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Torino cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Udinese 0-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.11 xG and Torino 1.12 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Udinese fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Torino outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Torino attack 0.82 / defence 0.89, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 35% | Draw 30% | Torino 35%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Torino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 47%, Torino 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Torino's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.11 PPG, Torino 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.