Lazio 1-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lazio (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lazio face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lazio host Udinese at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 11 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lazio stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio at Stadio Olimpico this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Lazio are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Lazio have won 2, Udinese 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Lazio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lazio in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Udinese in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 40% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 42% | Udinese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.08 xG and Udinese 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 0.742 / defence 0.792 | Udinese attack 0.771 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.212. Lazio's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lazio's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Lazio games / 65 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 42% | Draw 34% | Udinese 24%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Udinese 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Udinese's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.81 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 30% | Udinese 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Monday 11 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 42% | Draw 34% | Udinese 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Lazio 1.08 / Udinese 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 0.742 / def 0.792 | Udinese attack 0.771 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Lazio (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Udinese xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Udinese kick off?
Lazio vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 11 March 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Udinese?
Lazio 1 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Lazio vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Udinese part of?
Lazio vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 42% chance of winning, Udinese a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Lazio and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Udinese?
Record (5 meetings): Lazio 2W | Draws 3 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Lazio and Udinese in?
Lazio (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lazio's attack at 0.74x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
42%
2.37
34%
2.95
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Lazio xG
Total xG
1.81
0.74
Udinese xG
2.37
42%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
8%
12.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Lazio and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Lazio and 0.74 for Udinese, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lazio come into this having played 65 games, going 34W 12D 19L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.08 PPG from 65 outings (14W 28D 23L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lazio's home form reads 17W 7D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 0.97 points per game from 32 outings (7W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lazio are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.12 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Udinese in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 34W 12D 19L in their last 65 games (1.75 PPG), while Udinese have gone 14W 28D 23L in their last 65 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Udinese away?
Lazio's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.81 PPG; Udinese away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Lazio or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Udinese in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lazio's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lazio
6
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 2, Udinese have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Lazio 3-3 Udinese.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 41%, Udinese 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lazio) and 41% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Udinese in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Lazio's recent matches and 44% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lazio vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lazio's recent games and 41% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Udinese tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Udinese in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Udinese defy the odds to beat Lazio 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Lazio 1-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.08 xG and Udinese 0.74 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Udinese outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 0.74 / defence 0.79 against Udinese attack 0.77 / defence 1.02, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 42% | Draw 34% | Udinese 24%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Udinese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 42%, Udinese 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lazio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.