Hellas Verona 1-3 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AC Milan (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hellas Verona face AC Milan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 29 as Hellas Verona welcome AC Milan to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AC Milan — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AC Milan's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. AC Milan's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Hellas Verona's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
AC Milan have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 5 encounters against Hellas Verona's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with AC Milan winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AC Milan have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (66 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
AC Milan trading profile (66 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 53% versus AC Milan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 41% | AC Milan 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.45 xG and AC Milan 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.863 / defence 1.004 | AC Milan attack 1.342 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.218. AC Milan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AC Milan have an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Hellas Verona games / 66 AC Milan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 25% | AC Milan 42%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | AC Milan 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Milan at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Milan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 70% | AC Milan 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 25% | AC Milan 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Hellas Verona 1.45 / AC Milan 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.863 / def 1.004 | AC Milan attack 1.342 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.64
AC Milan xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs AC Milan kick off?
Hellas Verona vs AC Milan kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs AC Milan?
Hellas Verona 1 - 3 AC Milan.
Where is Hellas Verona vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs AC Milan part of?
Hellas Verona vs AC Milan is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 34% chance of winning, AC Milan a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hellas Verona and AC Milan will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and AC Milan?
Record (5 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 0 | AC Milan 5W.
What form are Hellas Verona and AC Milan in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. AC Milan (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.86x the league average against AC Milan's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AC Milan's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
34%
2.98
25%
4.06
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.09
1.64
AC Milan xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
7%
15.38
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.64 for AC Milan, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 14W 18D 34L from 66 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five.
AC Milan, meanwhile, have gone 38W 15D 13L across 66 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AC Milan by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 10W 8D 13L from 31 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Milan's away record stands at 15W 7D 9L across 31 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.76 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
AC Milan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 14W 18D 34L in their last 66 games (0.91 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 38W 15D 13L in their last 66 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or AC Milan away?
AC Milan's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.23 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, AC Milan in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and AC Milan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AC Milan have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Dec 2025, when AC Milan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting AC Milan specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Hellas Verona
0
Draws
10
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and AC Milan?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 0, AC Milan have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and AC Milan last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 58%, AC Milan 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hellas Verona) and 68% (AC Milan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play AC Milan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Hellas Verona's games and 64% of AC Milan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs AC Milan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Hellas Verona's matches and 68% of AC Milan's.
Do Hellas Verona and AC Milan tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, AC Milan in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Milan cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat Hellas Verona 1-3 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.45 xG and AC Milan 1.64 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AC Milan outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against AC Milan attack 1.34 / defence 1.21, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 25% | AC Milan 42%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 41%, AC Milan 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (66 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
AC Milan's trading profile (66 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AC Milan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.