Atalanta 2-3 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 29 as Atalanta welcome Fiorentina to Gewiss Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 June 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atalanta's home record at Gewiss Stadium: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gewiss Stadium.
Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Fiorentina's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Atalanta, 3 for Fiorentina and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 2–3 with Fiorentina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 55% versus Fiorentina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 57% | Fiorentina 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.91 xG and Fiorentina 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.412 / defence 0.801 | Fiorentina attack 0.982 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.206. Atalanta carry an above-average attack strength of 1.412 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 75 Atalanta games / 75 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 59% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 17%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Fiorentina 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Fiorentina lead the H2H ledger, but Atalanta carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Atalanta 40% | Fiorentina 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 59% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Atalanta 1.91 / Fiorentina 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.412 / def 0.801 | Fiorentina attack 0.982 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Fiorentina xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Fiorentina kick off?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Atalanta 2 - 3 Fiorentina.
Where is Atalanta vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Fiorentina part of?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 59% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atalanta and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
Record (5 meetings): Atalanta 1W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 3W.
What form are Atalanta and Fiorentina in?
Atalanta (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.20
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.85
0.95
Fiorentina xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
3%
38.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.95 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta's recent record stands at 40W 13D 22L from 75 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 31W 20D 24L across 75 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.77 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 23W 5D 9L from 37 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 12W 9D 16L across 37 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.48 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 40W 13D 22L in their last 75 games (1.77 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 31W 20D 24L in their last 75 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Fiorentina away?
Atalanta's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.00 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Atalanta's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 3, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 57%, Fiorentina 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Atalanta) and 35% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fiorentina in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Atalanta's recent matches and 46% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atalanta vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Atalanta's recent games and 35% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Atalanta 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Atalanta 2-3 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.91 xG and Fiorentina 0.95 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.41 / defence 0.80 against Fiorentina attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 59% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 17%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Fiorentina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 57%, Fiorentina 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.77 PPG, Fiorentina 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.