Empoli 0-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bologna at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Bologna encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Empoli welcome Bologna to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Serie A (matchday 29). Kick-off is Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Guide

Empoli — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Empoli have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Across their last 10 games, Bologna have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Bologna have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bologna — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Empoli, 1 for Bologna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Empoli 0–3 Bologna — a Bologna win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Empoli in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 42% versus Bologna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 36% | Bologna 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Empoli surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Bologna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 45% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.97 xG and Bologna 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.684 / defence 1.069 | Bologna attack 1.086 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.221. Empoli's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Empoli's last 66 games and Bologna's last 66.

Result probabilities: Empoli 25% | Draw 29% | Bologna 46%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 4.00 | Draw 3.49 | Bologna 2.16. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Empoli 30% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 90% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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