AC Milan 0-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AC Milan at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AC Milan vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Udinese travel to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza to take on AC Milan in Serie A (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, AC Milan stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
AC Milan at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Udinese — last 10 games: 0W 7D 3L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Udinese have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
AC Milan are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for AC Milan, 1 for Udinese and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended AC Milan 1–3 Udinese — a Udinese win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AC Milan trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 58% versus Udinese 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 52% | Udinese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.57 xG and Udinese 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 1.148 / defence 0.791 | Udinese attack 0.722 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.159. Udinese's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. AC Milan have a tight defence (rating 0.791), which is pulling Udinese's projected output down. Data: built from AC Milan's last 48 games and Udinese's last 48.
Result probabilities: AC Milan 59% | Draw 25% | Udinese 16%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 1.69 | Draw 3.94 | Udinese 6.45. The model has a clear lean to AC Milan (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AC Milan as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AC Milan 40% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 59% | Draw 25% | Udinese 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG AC Milan 1.57 / Udinese 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 1.148 / def 0.791 | Udinese attack 0.722 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Udinese xG
38%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AC Milan vs Udinese FAQs
What time does AC Milan vs Udinese kick off?
AC Milan vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs Udinese?
AC Milan 0 - 1 Udinese.
Where is AC Milan vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is AC Milan vs Udinese part of?
AC Milan vs Udinese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 11) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 59% chance of winning, Udinese a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both AC Milan and Udinese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will AC Milan vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AC Milan's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus AC Milan's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AC Milan's last 48 games and Udinese's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
59%
1.69
25%
3.94
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.23
0.66
Udinese xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
30%
3.28
3%
30.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 11.2 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AC Milan vs Udinese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are AC Milan and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.66 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, AC Milan have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 27W 11D 10L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Udinese's form line: 11W 20D 17L from 48 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D.
Put side by side, AC Milan are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AC Milan have posted 2.26 PPG from their last 23 home games (16W 4D 3L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 5W 8D 10L from their last 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AC Milan are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.10 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Blended
Udinese
Blended
AC Milan (Home) vs Udinese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AC Milan
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ AC Milan vs Udinese Form FAQs
What form are AC Milan and Udinese in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 27W 11D 10L in their last 48 games (1.92 PPG), while Udinese have gone 11W 20D 17L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or Udinese away?
AC Milan's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 2.26 PPG; Udinese away: 1.00 PPG.
Have AC Milan or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Udinese in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Apr 2025, when AC Milan won Udinese 0-4 AC Milan.
AC Milan's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AC Milan
1
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ AC Milan vs Udinese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Udinese?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AC Milan have won 6, Udinese have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AC Milan and Udinese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Udinese 0-2 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and Udinese?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 56%, Udinese 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AC Milan) and 39% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Udinese in 30%; Udinese in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AC Milan vs Udinese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AC Milan and Udinese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of AC Milan's recent matches and 44% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AC Milan and Udinese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of AC Milan's recent games and 39% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Milan and Udinese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of AC Milan's recent matches and 52% of Udinese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Udinese defy the odds to beat AC Milan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat AC Milan 0-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.57 xG and Udinese 0.66 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AC Milan fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.15 / defence 0.79 against Udinese attack 0.72 / defence 1.02, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Milan 59% | Draw 25% | Udinese 16%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Udinese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 52%, Udinese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Milan's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AC Milan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie A fixtures — matchday 11
All Serie A fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →