Sassuolo 2-2 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Salernitana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sassuolo and Salernitana meet at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A (matchday 12). This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Sassuolo's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sassuolo's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salernitana (all games): 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Salernitana's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Sassuolo's 1.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Salernitana's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Sassuolo edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Sassuolo 0–3 Salernitana — a Salernitana win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sassuolo half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 57% versus Salernitana 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 55% | Salernitana 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.59 xG and Salernitana 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.009 / defence 1.136 | Salernitana attack 0.693 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.173. Salernitana's attack rating of 0.693 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Sassuolo's last 49 games and Salernitana's last 49.
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 53% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 22%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.88 | Draw 3.98 | Salernitana 4.58. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sassuolo 70% (last 10 home games) | Salernitana 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, matchday 12 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Friday 10 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 53% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Sassuolo 1.59 / Salernitana 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.009 / def 1.136 | Salernitana attack 0.693 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Salernitana xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sassuolo vs Salernitana FAQs
What time does Sassuolo vs Salernitana kick off?
Sassuolo vs Salernitana kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 10 November 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Salernitana?
Sassuolo 2 - 2 Salernitana.
Where is Sassuolo vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Salernitana part of?
Sassuolo vs Salernitana is a Serie A fixture (matchday 12) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 53% chance of winning, Salernitana a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sassuolo and Salernitana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Sassuolo vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sassuolo's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.69x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Sassuolo's last 49 games and Salernitana's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
53%
1.88
25%
3.98
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.52
0.92
Salernitana xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
4%
22.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sassuolo vs Salernitana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sassuolo and 0.92 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sassuolo come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 11D 23L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.94 PPG from 49 outings (9W 19D 21L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Sassuolo against 0.94 for Salernitana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sassuolo's home form reads 9W 5D 10L across their last 24 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 24 away games (2W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sassuolo are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.10 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
Sassuolo (Home) vs Salernitana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sassuolo
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Sassuolo vs Salernitana Form FAQs
What form are Sassuolo and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 9W 19D 21L in their last 49 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Salernitana away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.33 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sassuolo have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sassuolo won Sassuolo 5-0 Salernitana on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Sassuolo
3
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Sassuolo vs Salernitana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Salernitana?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sassuolo have won 4, Salernitana have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Salernitana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 January 2025: Salernitana 1-2 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Salernitana?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 58%, Salernitana 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sassuolo) and 46% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sassuolo vs Salernitana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sassuolo and Salernitana matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Sassuolo's games and 54% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sassuolo and Salernitana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sassuolo's recent games and 46% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Salernitana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 83% of Salernitana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo and Salernitana share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo and Salernitana finished level at 2-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.59 xG and Salernitana 0.92 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Salernitana outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.01 / defence 1.14 against Salernitana attack 0.69 / defence 1.19, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 53% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 22%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 55%, Salernitana 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Salernitana's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.14 PPG, Salernitana 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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