Genoa 1-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Hellas Verona at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 10 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Genoa have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Genoa's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Genoa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hellas Verona stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Hellas Verona away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Genoa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Genoa, 1 for Hellas Verona and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2022, ended Genoa 0–1 Hellas Verona — a Hellas Verona win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 39% versus Hellas Verona 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 41% | Hellas Verona 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.27 xG and Hellas Verona 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.995 / defence 1.096 | Hellas Verona attack 0.702 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.182. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Genoa's last 11 games and Hellas Verona's last 49.
Result probabilities: Genoa 45% | Draw 29% | Hellas Verona 27%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.24 | Draw 3.49 | Hellas Verona 3.75. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Genoa 50% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 10 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 45% | Draw 29% | Hellas Verona 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Genoa 1.27 / Hellas Verona 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.995 / def 1.096 | Hellas Verona attack 0.702 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Genoa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Hellas Verona xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs Hellas Verona FAQs
What time does Genoa vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Genoa vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 10 November 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Genoa 1 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is Genoa vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Hellas Verona part of?
Genoa vs Hellas Verona is a Serie A fixture (matchday 12) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 45% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Genoa and Hellas Verona will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Genoa vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genoa's attack rating (0.99) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 11 games and Hellas Verona's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.49
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.18
0.91
Hellas Verona xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs Hellas Verona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Genoa and 0.91 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa's recent record stands at 24W 13D 12L from 49 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 27L across 49 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Genoa by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 14W 7D 3L from their last 24 home games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 3W 6D 15L across their last 24 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.80 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
Genoa (Home) vs Hellas Verona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Genoa vs Hellas Verona Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 24W 13D 12L in their last 49 games (1.73 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 10W 12D 27L in their last 49 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Hellas Verona away?
Genoa's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 2.04 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Genoa or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Genoa's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Genoa
2
Draws
2
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs Hellas Verona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Hellas Verona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 4, Hellas Verona have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Hellas Verona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Hellas Verona 0-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Hellas Verona?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 33%, Hellas Verona 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Genoa and 33% for Hellas Verona.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Hellas Verona in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs Hellas Verona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and Hellas Verona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Genoa's recent matches and 46% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genoa and Hellas Verona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Genoa's recent games and 33% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Hellas Verona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Genoa's recent matches and 62% of Hellas Verona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Hellas Verona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Hellas Verona 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.27 xG and Hellas Verona 0.91 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.99 / defence 1.10 against Hellas Verona attack 0.70 / defence 0.96, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 45% | Draw 29% | Hellas Verona 27%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 41%, Hellas Verona 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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