Napoli 3-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to face Napoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Napoli have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cremonese (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Napoli. A 2.30 PPG lead over Cremonese (2.70 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Napoli have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cremonese in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Napoli lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 4–1 with Napoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Napoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 51% versus Cremonese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 56% | Cremonese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 2.72 xG and Cremonese 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.657 / defence 0.884 | Cremonese attack 0.792 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.195. Napoli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.657 — their λ of 2.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Napoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Napoli games / 21 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 77% | Draw 14% | Cremonese 9%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.30 | Draw 7.14 | Cremonese 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (77%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Napoli 60% | Cremonese 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 77% | Draw 14% | Cremonese 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 53% | xG Napoli 2.72 / Cremonese 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.657 / def 0.884 | Cremonese attack 0.792 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Napoli (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.72
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Cremonese xG
53%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Cremonese kick off?
Napoli vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Cremonese?
Napoli 3 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Napoli vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Cremonese part of?
Napoli vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 77% chance of winning, Cremonese a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Napoli and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Napoli 1W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Napoli and Cremonese in?
Napoli (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Cremonese (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Napoli's attack rating (1.66) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.79x) against Napoli's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
77%
1.30
14%
7.07
9%
11.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.72
Napoli xG
Total xG
3.55
0.84
Cremonese xG
1.30
77%
Home win
7.07
14%
Draw
11.15
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
7%
15.13
Win to Nil
33%
3.00
1%
168.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Napoli and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 2.72 expected goals for Napoli and 0.84 for Cremonese, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Napoli's recent record stands at 42W 9D 8L from 59 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 22L across 59 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Napoli by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cremonese heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Napoli have managed 20W 4D 5L from 29 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 9W 8D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Napoli are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.22 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 42W 9D 8L in their last 59 games (2.29 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 20W 17D 22L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Cremonese away?
Napoli's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.21 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Napoli or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Cremonese in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Napoli have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 4-0 on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Napoli
0
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Napoli have won 4, Cremonese have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Napoli 4-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Cremonese?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 52%, Cremonese 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Napoli) and 48% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cremonese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Napoli's games and 59% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Napoli vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Napoli's recent games and 48% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Cremonese tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Napoli run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Cremonese 3-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 2.72 xG and Cremonese 0.84 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.66 / defence 0.88 against Cremonese attack 0.79 / defence 1.23, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 77% | Draw 14% | Cremonese 9%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 56%, Cremonese 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cremonese's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Napoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.