Udinese 0-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Salernitana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dacia Arena plays host to Udinese versus Salernitana in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Wednesday 20 April 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Udinese at Dacia Arena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salernitana (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Salernitana's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Udinese's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Salernitana's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Udinese have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Salernitana in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 61% versus Salernitana 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 52% | Salernitana 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 2.58 xG and Salernitana 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.441 / defence 1.209 | Salernitana attack 0.731 / defence 1.700. League average goals — home 1.052 / away 1.248. Udinese carry an above-average attack strength of 1.441 — their λ of 2.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.700 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Udinese games / 31 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 68% | Draw 19% | Salernitana 13%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Salernitana 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.58 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.68 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 80% | Salernitana 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 68% | Draw 19% | Salernitana 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 63% | xG Udinese 2.58 / Salernitana 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.441 / def 1.209 | Salernitana attack 0.731 / def 1.700 | league avg home 1.052 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Udinese (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.58
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Salernitana xG
63%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Salernitana kick off?
Udinese vs Salernitana kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Salernitana?
Udinese 0 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Udinese vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Salernitana part of?
Udinese vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 68% chance of winning, Salernitana a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Udinese and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Salernitana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Udinese and Salernitana in?
Udinese (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Salernitana (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Udinese's attack at 1.44x the league average against Salernitana's defence at 1.70x — combine the two and it projects 2.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.73x) against Udinese's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 1-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.26
13%
7.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.58
Udinese xG
Total xG
3.68
1.10
Salernitana xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
7.69
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
8%
13.17
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
1%
101.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Udinese and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Udinese and 1.10 for Salernitana, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Salernitana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 9W 12D 10L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Salernitana's form line: 4W 7D 20L from 31 games, 0.61 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Udinese are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.56 PPG from 16 outings (6W 7D 3L).
On the road, Salernitana have gone 3W 2D 11L from 16 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Udinese are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.81 scored and 2.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Salernitana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 9W 12D 10L in their last 31 games (1.26 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 4W 7D 20L in their last 31 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Salernitana away?
Udinese's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.56 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 22 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Udinese
3
Draws
2
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Salernitana have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Udinese 1-1 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Salernitana?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 69%, Salernitana 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Udinese) and 69% (Salernitana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Salernitana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Udinese's games and 56% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Udinese's matches and 69% of Salernitana's.
Do Udinese and Salernitana tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Udinese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Udinese 0-1 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 2.58 xG and Salernitana 1.10 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.44 / defence 1.21 against Salernitana attack 0.73 / defence 1.70, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 68% | Draw 19% | Salernitana 13%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Salernitana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 52%, Salernitana 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salernitana's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Udinese arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.61. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.