Bologna 1-0 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 42%, yet in-form Inter provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bologna vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Inter at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 February 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Inter — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bologna, 2 for Inter and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2022, ended 1–6 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Inter in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Inter 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | Inter 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.37 xG and Inter 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.941 / defence 0.877 | Inter attack 1.100 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.191. Data: 61 Bologna games / 61 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 27% | Inter 31%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Inter 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Inter (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 5.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | Inter 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 27% | Inter 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Bologna 1.37 / Inter 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.941 / def 0.877 | Inter attack 1.100 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Bologna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Inter xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Inter kick off?
Bologna vs Inter kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Inter?
Bologna 1 - 0 Inter.
Where is Bologna vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Inter part of?
Bologna vs Inter is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 42% chance of winning, Inter a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bologna and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
Record (3 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 0 | Inter 2W.
What form are Bologna and Inter in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Inter (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.94) and Inter's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.75
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.52
1.15
Inter xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
8%
12.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bologna and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Bologna and 1.15 for Inter, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 21W 15D 25L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter's form line: 40W 11D 10L from 61 games, 2.15 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L).
On the road, Inter have gone 16W 8D 6L from 30 away games — 1.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.10 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Inter in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 21W 15D 25L in their last 61 games (1.28 PPG), while Inter have gone 40W 11D 10L in their last 61 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.47 PPG; Inter away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Bologna or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Inter in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Inter won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Inter specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
4
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Inter have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Bologna 3-3 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 47%, Inter 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bologna) and 67% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Bologna's games and 70% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Bologna's recent games and 67% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Inter tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Inter in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Inter 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Inter 1-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.37 xG and Inter 1.15 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Inter landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Inter attack 1.10 / defence 1.15, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 42% | Draw 27% | Inter 31%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, Inter 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Inter's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Inter (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.