Pisa 0-3 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Napoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Napoli travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa in Serie A (matchday 37). The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pisa stand at 1W 0D 9L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Pisa's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Napoli have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Napoli have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Napoli's 2.00 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Pisa's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Pisa have won 0, Napoli 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2025, ended Pisa 2–3 Napoli — a Napoli win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Napoli in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 49% versus Napoli 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 53% | Napoli 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.74 xG and Napoli 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.699 / defence 1.318 | Napoli attack 0.979 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.131. Pisa's attack rating of 0.699 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Pisa's defence rating of 1.318 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Napoli's projected output up. Data: built from Pisa's last 36 games and Napoli's last 74.
Result probabilities: Pisa 19% | Draw 27% | Napoli 54%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 5.39 | Draw 3.66 | Napoli 1.85. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pisa 60% (last 10 home games) | Napoli 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 37 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 19% | Draw 27% | Napoli 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Pisa 0.74 / Napoli 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.699 / def 1.318 | Napoli attack 0.979 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Napoli (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Napoli xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Napoli FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Napoli kick off?
Pisa vs Napoli kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Napoli?
Pisa 0 - 3 Napoli.
Where is Pisa vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Napoli part of?
Pisa vs Napoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 19% chance of winning, Napoli a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Pisa and Napoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Pisa vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.70x the league average against Napoli's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 36 games and Napoli's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
19%
5.39
27%
3.66
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.19
1.46
Napoli xG
5.39
19%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
4%
23.14
26%
3.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 16.3 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Napoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Pisa and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Pisa and 1.46 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa's recent record stands at 24W 20D 30L from 74 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Napoli, meanwhile, have gone 45W 17D 12L across 74 games — 2.05 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Napoli by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 15W 8D 14L from their last 37 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Napoli's away record stands at 19W 10D 8L across their last 37 away games, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.53 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
Pisa (Home) vs Napoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
❓ Pisa vs Napoli Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Napoli in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 24W 20D 30L in their last 74 games (1.24 PPG), while Napoli have gone 45W 17D 12L in their last 74 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.43 PPG; Napoli away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Pisa or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Napoli in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2025. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pisa
0
Draws
2
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Napoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Napoli?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 0, Napoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Napoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Pisa 0-3 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 49%, Napoli 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Pisa) and 40% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 46%; Pisa have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Napoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Napoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Pisa's recent matches and 40% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pisa and Napoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Pisa's recent games and 40% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Napoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 51% of Pisa's recent matches and 73% of Napoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Napoli run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Pisa 0-3 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.74 xG and Napoli 1.46 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Napoli outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.70 / defence 1.32 against Napoli attack 0.98 / defence 0.84, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 19% | Draw 27% | Napoli 54%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 53%, Napoli 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Napoli's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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