Parma 2-3 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AS Roma at 46% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ennio Tardini plays host to Parma versus AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 36). Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Parma have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Parma at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
AS Roma (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
AS Roma away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Parma, 1.70 for AS Roma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to AS Roma, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2025, ended Parma 1–2 AS Roma — a AS Roma win.
The H2H data backs the away side. AS Roma have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 53% versus AS Roma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 42% | AS Roma 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Parma surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while AS Roma have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.97 xG and AS Roma 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.739 / defence 1.105 | AS Roma attack 1.136 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.093. Parma's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Parma's last 73 games and AS Roma's last 73.
Result probabilities: Parma 26% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 46%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.81 | Draw 3.56 | AS Roma 2.19. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 46% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (AS Roma 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 40% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 36 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 26% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Parma 0.97 / AS Roma 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.739 / def 1.105 | AS Roma attack 1.136 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.37
AS Roma xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs AS Roma FAQs
What time does Parma vs AS Roma kick off?
Parma vs AS Roma kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs AS Roma?
Parma 2 - 3 AS Roma.
Where is Parma vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs AS Roma part of?
Parma vs AS Roma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 26% chance of winning, AS Roma a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Parma and AS Roma will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Parma vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.74) and AS Roma's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.14x) against Parma's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 73 games and AS Roma's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
26%
3.81
28%
3.56
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Parma xG
Total xG
2.35
1.37
AS Roma xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
7%
15.02
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs AS Roma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Parma and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Parma and 1.37 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Parma come into this having played 73 games, going 17W 27D 29L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.82 PPG from 73 outings (40W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Parma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Parma's home form reads 9W 12D 15L across their last 36 home games, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.47 points per game from their last 36 away games (15W 8D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.48 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
Parma (Home) vs AS Roma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Parma vs AS Roma Form FAQs
What form are Parma and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 17W 27D 29L in their last 73 games (1.07 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 40W 13D 20L in their last 73 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.08 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Parma or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AS Roma in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Parma and AS Roma, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won AS Roma 5-0 Parma on 22 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Parma
0
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs AS Roma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and AS Roma?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 0, AS Roma have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and AS Roma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Parma 2-3 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 58%, AS Roma 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Parma) and 33% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 39%; Parma have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs AS Roma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and AS Roma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Parma's recent matches and 44% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and AS Roma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Parma's recent games and 33% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and AS Roma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Parma's recent matches and 64% of AS Roma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Parma 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Parma 2-3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.97 xG and AS Roma 1.37 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Roma outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.74 / defence 1.10 against AS Roma attack 1.14 / defence 1.07, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 26% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 46%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 42%, AS Roma 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Parma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie A fixtures — matchday 36
All Serie A fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →