Monza 0-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Bologna travel to U-Power Stadium to take on Monza. The game is scheduled for Thursday 28 September 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Monza — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Monza have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Monza 1.20 PPG, Bologna 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Monza, 1 for Bologna and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Monza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Monza trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Bologna trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 49% versus Bologna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 42% | Bologna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.18 xG and Bologna 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.939 / defence 0.915 | Bologna attack 1.025 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.116. Data: 43 Monza games / 43 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 38% | Draw 30% | Bologna 31%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Bologna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Monza 50% | Bologna 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Sep 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 38% | Draw 30% | Bologna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Monza 1.18 / Bologna 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.939 / def 0.915 | Bologna attack 1.025 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Monza (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bologna xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Bologna kick off?
Monza vs Bologna kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 28 September 2023 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Bologna?
Monza 0 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Monza vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Bologna part of?
Monza vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 38% chance of winning, Bologna a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Monza and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Bologna?
Record (2 meetings): Monza 1W | Draws 0 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Monza and Bologna in?
Monza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Bologna (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Monza's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.28
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Monza xG
Total xG
2.22
1.05
Bologna xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Monza and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Monza and 1.05 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monza's recent record stands at 15W 12D 16L from 43 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 13L across 43 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monza on 1.33 PPG, Bologna on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monza have managed 8W 6D 7L from 21 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 7W 5D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.30 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bologna in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Bologna in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 15W 12D 16L in their last 43 games (1.33 PPG), while Bologna have gone 15W 15D 13L in their last 43 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Bologna away?
Monza's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.43 PPG; Bologna away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monza and Bologna runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bologna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Monza's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Monza
2
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Bologna?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 1, Bologna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Bologna 3-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 52%, Bologna 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Monza) and 67% (Bologna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Monza's games and 71% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Monza's recent games and 67% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Bologna tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bologna in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Monza's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Monza and Bologna drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.18 xG and Bologna 1.05 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Monza fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bologna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Bologna attack 1.02 / defence 0.87, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 38% | Draw 30% | Bologna 31%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 42%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bologna's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.33 PPG, Bologna 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.