Sassuolo 0-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sassuolo host Monza at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 2 October 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sassuolo — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 5W 2D 3L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sassuolo are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Monza have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sassuolo 1.00 PPG, Monza 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sassuolo register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Monza in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sassuolo have won 0, Monza 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Monza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Monza trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 57% versus Monza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 59% | Monza 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.97 xG and Monza 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.262 / defence 1.170 | Monza attack 0.910 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.109. Sassuolo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Sassuolo games / 44 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 54% | Draw 24% | Monza 21%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Monza 4.76. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 70% | Monza 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Monday 2 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 54% | Draw 24% | Monza 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Sassuolo 1.97 / Monza 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.262 / def 1.170 | Monza attack 0.910 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Monza xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Monza kick off?
Sassuolo vs Monza kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 2 October 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Monza?
Sassuolo 0 - 1 Monza.
Where is Sassuolo vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Monza part of?
Sassuolo vs Monza is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 54% chance of winning, Monza a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sassuolo and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Monza?
Record (2 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 1 | Monza 1W.
What form are Sassuolo and Monza in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Monza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (1.26) and Monza's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.09
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.15
1.18
Monza xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
3%
34.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.18 for Monza, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sassuolo come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 9D 20L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.32 PPG from 44 outings (15W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 1.23 PPG, Monza on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sassuolo's home form reads 10W 4D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.18 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Monza in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 15W 9D 20L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while Monza have gone 15W 13D 16L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Monza away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.55 PPG; Monza away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Monza go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sassuolo's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sassuolo
1
Draws
3
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 0, Monza have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Monza 1-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 59%, Monza 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sassuolo) and 46% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 46% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sassuolo's recent games and 46% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Monza tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Monza in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Sassuolo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Sassuolo 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.97 xG and Monza 1.18 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sassuolo fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.26 / defence 1.17 against Monza attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 54% | Draw 24% | Monza 21%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Monza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 59%, Monza 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monza's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.23 PPG, Monza 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.