Bologna 3-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Empoli travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Empoli have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bologna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Empoli, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Bologna.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Empoli winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Empoli have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Empoli in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 59% versus Empoli 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 48% | Empoli 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.73 xG and Empoli 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.800 / defence 0.846 | Empoli attack 0.745 / defence 1.503. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.127. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.503 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Bologna games / 44 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 61% | Draw 26% | Empoli 14%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Empoli 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Empoli lead the H2H ledger, but Bologna carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 40% | Empoli 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 61% | Draw 26% | Empoli 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Bologna 1.73 / Empoli 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.800 / def 0.846 | Empoli attack 0.745 / def 1.503 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Bologna (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Empoli xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Empoli kick off?
Bologna vs Empoli kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Empoli?
Bologna 3 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Bologna vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Empoli part of?
Bologna vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 61% chance of winning, Empoli a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bologna and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Empoli?
Record (4 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 1 | Empoli 3W.
What form are Bologna and Empoli in?
Bologna (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Empoli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.80x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.91
14%
7.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.44
0.71
Empoli xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
7.27
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
2%
41.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Bologna and 0.71 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 15W 16D 13L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Empoli's form line: 11W 13D 20L from 44 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.39 PPG, Empoli on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (8W 9D 4L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 2W 9D 10L from 21 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.86 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Empoli in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 15W 16D 13L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while Empoli have gone 11W 13D 20L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Empoli away?
Bologna's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.57 PPG; Empoli away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Bologna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bologna
3
Draws
3
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, Empoli have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Empoli 1-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 48%, Empoli 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Bologna and 33% for Empoli.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 29% of games; Empoli in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bologna's recent matches and 52% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bologna's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Empoli tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Empoli in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bologna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Empoli 3-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.73 xG and Empoli 0.71 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.80 / defence 0.85 against Empoli attack 0.74 / defence 1.50, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 61% | Draw 26% | Empoli 14%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 48%, Empoli 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.39 PPG, Empoli 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.