Lazio 1-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Olimpico to face Lazio in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Lazio (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lazio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, Lazio have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Monza have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Monza have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monza's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Lazio, 1.20 for Monza — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lazio lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with Lazio winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 38% versus Monza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 45% | Monza 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.42 xG and Monza 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 0.889 / defence 1.001 | Monza attack 0.864 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.153. Data: 42 Lazio games / 42 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 46% | Draw 29% | Monza 26%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Monza 3.85. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 40% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 46% | Draw 29% | Monza 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Lazio 1.42 / Monza 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 0.889 / def 1.001 | Monza attack 0.864 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Lazio (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Monza xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Monza kick off?
Lazio vs Monza kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Monza?
Lazio 1 - 1 Monza.
Where is Lazio vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Monza part of?
Lazio vs Monza is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 46% chance of winning, Monza a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lazio and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Monza?
Record (2 meetings): Lazio 2W | Draws 0 | Monza 0W.
What form are Lazio and Monza in?
Lazio (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Monza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lazio's attack at 0.89x the league average against Monza's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.86x) against Lazio's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.49
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.42
1.00
Monza xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
6%
16.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lazio and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Lazio and 1.00 for Monza, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lazio come into this having played 42 games, going 23W 8D 11L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Lazio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.33 PPG from 42 outings (15W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Monza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lazio's home form reads 11W 4D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.30 points per game from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lazio are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.21 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Monza in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 23W 8D 11L in their last 42 games (1.83 PPG), while Monza have gone 15W 11D 16L in their last 42 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Monza away?
Lazio's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.85 PPG; Monza away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Lazio or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Monza in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lazio have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won 5-1 on 9 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Lazio
2
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Lazio have won 4, Monza have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Lazio 5-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Monza?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 45%, Monza 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lazio) and 45% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Monza in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Lazio's recent matches and 45% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lazio vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lazio's recent games and 45% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Monza tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Monza in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 5, as Lazio and Monza drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.42 xG and Monza 1.00 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Monza attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 46% | Draw 29% | Monza 26%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 45%, Monza 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.