Frosinone 1-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fiorentina make the trip to Stadio Benito Stirpe to face Frosinone in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Thursday 28 September 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Frosinone's home record at Stadio Benito Stirpe: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fiorentina's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Frosinone, 2.00 for Fiorentina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 44% versus Fiorentina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 46% | Fiorentina 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.75 xG and Fiorentina 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.209 / defence 1.309 | Fiorentina attack 1.234 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.116. Fiorentina have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 Frosinone games / 43 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 37% | Draw 23% | Fiorentina 39%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Fiorentina 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 60% | Fiorentina 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Sep 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 37% | Draw 23% | Fiorentina 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Frosinone 1.75 / Fiorentina 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.209 / def 1.309 | Fiorentina attack 1.234 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Fiorentina xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Fiorentina kick off?
Frosinone vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 28 September 2023 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Fiorentina?
Frosinone 1 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Frosinone vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Fiorentina part of?
Frosinone vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 37% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Frosinone and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Fiorentina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Frosinone and Fiorentina in?
Frosinone (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Fiorentina (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (1.21) and Fiorentina's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.23x) against Frosinone's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
37%
2.68
23%
4.32
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Frosinone xG
Total xG
3.55
1.80
Fiorentina xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
16%
6.07
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
6%
16.23
7%
14.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.80 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Frosinone's recent record stands at 26W 10D 7L from 43 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 13L across 43 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Frosinone by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fiorentina heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 16W 3D 3L from 22 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 8W 5D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.49 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 26W 10D 7L in their last 43 games (2.05 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 18W 12D 13L in their last 43 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Fiorentina away?
Frosinone's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.32 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Frosinone
1
Draws
1
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Fiorentina?
From 2 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 0, Fiorentina have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Fiorentina 5-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 36%, Fiorentina 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Frosinone) and 41% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Fiorentina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Frosinone's recent matches and 46% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Frosinone's recent games and 41% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone and Fiorentina finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.75 xG and Fiorentina 1.80 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fiorentina landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.21 / defence 1.31 against Fiorentina attack 1.23 / defence 1.00, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 37% | Draw 23% | Fiorentina 39%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 46%, Fiorentina 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.