Monza 1-4 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monza and AS Roma meet at U-Power Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Monza's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AS Roma have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Monza lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 45% versus AS Roma 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 41% | AS Roma 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.25 xG and AS Roma 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.929 / defence 0.982 | AS Roma attack 1.047 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.190. Data: 64 Monza games / 64 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 35% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 34%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | AS Roma 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Monza 50% | AS Roma 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 35% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Monza 1.25 / AS Roma 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.929 / def 0.982 | AS Roma attack 1.047 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Monza (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.22
AS Roma xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs AS Roma kick off?
Monza vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs AS Roma?
Monza 1 - 4 AS Roma.
Where is Monza vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs AS Roma part of?
Monza vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 35% chance of winning, AS Roma a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Monza and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and AS Roma?
Record (3 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Monza and AS Roma in?
Monza (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.93x the league average against AS Roma's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.05x) against Monza's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
35%
2.85
31%
3.21
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Monza xG
Total xG
2.48
1.22
AS Roma xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Monza and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Monza and 1.22 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Monza's recent record stands at 23W 19D 22L from 64 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 31W 14D 19L across 64 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Monza against 1.67 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Monza have managed 12W 10D 9L from 31 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 11W 8D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Monza are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.53 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 23W 19D 22L in their last 64 games (1.38 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 31W 14D 19L in their last 64 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or AS Roma away?
Monza's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.48 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Monza or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AS Roma in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 4-0 on 24 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Monza
2
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and AS Roma?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 0, AS Roma have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2025, when AS Roma 4-0 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 48%, AS Roma 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Monza) and 52% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Monza's recent matches and 61% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Monza's recent games and 52% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and AS Roma tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Monza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Monza 1-4 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.25 xG and AS Roma 1.22 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 1.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against AS Roma attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 35% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 34%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual AS Roma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 41%, AS Roma 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.38 PPG, AS Roma 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.