Udinese 1-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bluenergy Stadium plays host to Udinese versus Salernitana in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese at Bluenergy Stadium this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salernitana (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Udinese's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Salernitana's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Udinese, 2 for Salernitana and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 53% versus Salernitana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 47% | Salernitana 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.56 xG and Salernitana 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.902 / defence 1.143 | Salernitana attack 0.720 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.189. Data: 64 Udinese games / 64 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 49% | Draw 29% | Salernitana 22%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Salernitana 4.55. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 80% | Salernitana 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 49% | Draw 29% | Salernitana 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Udinese 1.56 / Salernitana 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.902 / def 1.143 | Salernitana attack 0.720 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Udinese (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Salernitana xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Salernitana kick off?
Udinese vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Salernitana?
Udinese 1 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Udinese vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Salernitana part of?
Udinese vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 49% chance of winning, Salernitana a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Udinese and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Salernitana?
Record (5 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 2 | Salernitana 2W.
What form are Udinese and Salernitana in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Salernitana (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.90x the league average against Salernitana's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.72x) against Udinese's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.49
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.54
0.98
Salernitana xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
5%
21.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Udinese and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Udinese and 0.98 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 14W 27D 23L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salernitana's form line: 11W 22D 31L from 64 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Udinese against 0.86 for Salernitana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.19 PPG from 31 outings (7W 16D 8L).
On the road, Salernitana have gone 3W 12D 16L from 31 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Udinese are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.06 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 14W 27D 23L in their last 64 games (1.08 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 11W 22D 31L in their last 64 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Salernitana away?
Udinese's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.19 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 22 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Udinese
3
Draws
2
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Salernitana have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Udinese 1-1 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Salernitana?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 64%, Salernitana 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Udinese) and 52% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Salernitana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Udinese's games and 52% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Udinese's recent games and 52% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Salernitana tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Salernitana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Udinese and Salernitana drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.56 xG and Salernitana 0.98 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 1.14 against Salernitana attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 49% | Draw 29% | Salernitana 22%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 47%, Salernitana 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Salernitana's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.08 PPG, Salernitana 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.