Fiorentina 2-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 43%, yet in-form AS Roma provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fiorentina vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 28 as Fiorentina welcome AS Roma to Stadio Artemio Franchi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Fiorentina's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fiorentina, 2 for AS Roma and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 51% versus AS Roma 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 43% | AS Roma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.59 xG and AS Roma 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.209 / defence 0.869 | AS Roma attack 1.237 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.207. AS Roma have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Fiorentina games / 65 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 43% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 30%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | AS Roma 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AS Roma (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 40% | AS Roma 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 43% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Fiorentina 1.59 / AS Roma 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.209 / def 0.869 | AS Roma attack 1.237 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.30
AS Roma xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs AS Roma kick off?
Fiorentina vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Fiorentina 2 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Fiorentina vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs AS Roma part of?
Fiorentina vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 43% chance of winning, AS Roma a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fiorentina and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
Record (5 meetings): Fiorentina 2W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Fiorentina and AS Roma in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. AS Roma (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
43%
2.31
26%
3.82
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.88
1.30
AS Roma xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
6%
16.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.30 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 27W 17D 21L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma's form line: 32W 14D 19L from 65 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.51 PPG, AS Roma on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.84 PPG from 32 outings (17W 8D 7L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 12W 8D 12L from 32 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.57 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 27W 17D 21L in their last 65 games (1.51 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 32W 14D 19L in their last 65 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or AS Roma away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.84 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AS Roma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 56%, AS Roma 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Fiorentina) and 53% (AS Roma).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fiorentina's games and 62% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Fiorentina's recent games and 53% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and AS Roma tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and AS Roma share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 28, as Fiorentina and AS Roma drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.59 xG and AS Roma 1.30 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.21 / defence 0.87 against AS Roma attack 1.24 / defence 0.92, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 43% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 30%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 43%, AS Roma 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.51 PPG, AS Roma 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.