AS Roma 3-2 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Monday 26 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Torino (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Torino have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for AS Roma, 1.60 for Torino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, AS Roma are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives AS Roma a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 52% versus Torino 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 49% | Torino 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.55 xG and Torino 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.347 / defence 0.986 | Torino attack 0.770 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.159. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 AS Roma games / 63 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 51% | Draw 30% | Torino 19%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Torino 5.26. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 60% | Torino 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Monday 26 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 51% | Draw 30% | Torino 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG AS Roma 1.55 / Torino 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.347 / def 0.986 | Torino attack 0.770 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Torino xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Torino kick off?
AS Roma vs Torino kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 26 February 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Torino?
AS Roma 3 - 2 Torino.
Where is AS Roma vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Torino part of?
AS Roma vs Torino is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 51% chance of winning, Torino a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AS Roma and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Torino?
Record (5 meetings): AS Roma 3W | Draws 2 | Torino 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Torino in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Torino (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.77x) against AS Roma's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
51%
1.96
30%
3.36
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.43
0.88
Torino xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
4%
24.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.88 for Torino, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 30W 14D 19L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino's form line: 23W 20D 20L from 63 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for AS Roma against 1.41 for Torino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 1.94 PPG from 31 outings (18W 6D 7L).
On the road, Torino have gone 12W 8D 11L from 31 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.03 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Torino in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Torino in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 30W 14D 19L in their last 63 games (1.65 PPG), while Torino have gone 23W 20D 20L in their last 63 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Torino away?
AS Roma's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.94 PPG; Torino away: 1.42 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Torino in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 0-3 on 20 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AS Roma
2
Draws
1
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 7, Torino have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Torino?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 45%, Torino 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AS Roma) and 39% (Torino).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Torino in 32%; Torino in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of AS Roma's recent matches and 48% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of AS Roma's recent games and 39% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Torino tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Torino in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Torino 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Torino 3-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.55 xG and Torino 0.88 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Torino outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.35 / defence 0.99 against Torino attack 0.77 / defence 0.80, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 51% | Draw 30% | Torino 19%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 49%, Torino 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Torino's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.65 PPG, Torino 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.