Atalanta 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atalanta host Bologna at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atalanta — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Gewiss Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gewiss Stadium.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atalanta at 2.00 PPG versus Bologna's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Atalanta have won 2, Bologna 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Atalanta in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 53% versus Bologna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 53% | Bologna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 2.18 xG and Bologna 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.412 / defence 0.726 | Bologna attack 1.023 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.193. Atalanta carry an above-average attack strength of 1.412 — their λ of 2.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Atalanta's defence rating of 0.726 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Atalanta games / 64 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 66% | Draw 21% | Bologna 13%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Bologna 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 50% | Bologna 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 66% | Draw 21% | Bologna 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG Atalanta 2.18 / Bologna 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.412 / def 0.726 | Bologna attack 1.023 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bologna xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Bologna kick off?
Atalanta vs Bologna kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta 1 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Atalanta vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Bologna part of?
Atalanta vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 66% chance of winning, Bologna a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atalanta and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Bologna?
Record (5 meetings): Atalanta 2W | Draws 1 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Atalanta and Bologna in?
Atalanta (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Bologna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (1.41) and Bologna's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
66%
1.52
21%
4.66
13%
7.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.07
0.89
Bologna xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
7.81
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
1%
69.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.89 for Bologna, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 33W 11D 20L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 27W 21D 16L from 64 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.72 PPG, Bologna on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 2.03 PPG from 31 outings (20W 3D 8L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 9W 10D 12L from 31 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bologna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.44 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Bologna in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 33W 11D 20L in their last 64 games (1.72 PPG), while Bologna have gone 27W 21D 16L in their last 64 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Bologna away?
Atalanta's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.03 PPG; Bologna away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bologna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atalanta and Bologna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atalanta's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atalanta
2
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 4, Bologna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Atalanta 0-1 Bologna.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 55%, Bologna 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Atalanta and 68% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Atalanta's games and 74% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Atalanta's matches and 68% of Bologna's.
Do Atalanta and Bologna tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bologna in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Atalanta 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Atalanta 1-2 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 2.18 xG and Bologna 0.89 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bologna outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.41 / defence 0.73 against Bologna attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 66% | Draw 21% | Bologna 13%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Bologna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 53%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.72 PPG, Bologna 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.