Fiorentina 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 February 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bologna are 0.50 PPG clear of Fiorentina in recent Serie A fixtures (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bologna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Fiorentina, 1 for Bologna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Bologna — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 53% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 53% | Bologna 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.53 xG and Bologna 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.924 / defence 1.052 | Bologna attack 1.020 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.178. Data: 58 Fiorentina games / 58 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 43% | Draw 25% | Bologna 32%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Bologna 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bologna (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 60% | Bologna 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 43% | Draw 25% | Bologna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Fiorentina 1.53 / Bologna 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.924 / def 1.052 | Bologna attack 1.020 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Bologna xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Bologna kick off?
Fiorentina vs Bologna kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Fiorentina 1 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Fiorentina vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Bologna part of?
Fiorentina vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 43% chance of winning, Bologna a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fiorentina and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Bologna?
Record (3 meetings): Fiorentina 2W | Draws 0 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Bologna in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Bologna (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 0.92x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.02x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
43%
2.30
25%
3.99
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.79
1.26
Bologna xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
7%
14.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.26 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 25W 11D 22L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 19W 15D 24L from 58 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.24 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.89 PPG from 28 outings (16W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bologna have gone 6W 7D 15L from 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.21 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Bologna in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 25W 11D 22L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Bologna have gone 19W 15D 24L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Bologna away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.89 PPG; Bologna away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
1
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Bologna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Bologna?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 43%, Bologna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Fiorentina) and 61% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bologna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 57% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Fiorentina's matches and 61% of Bologna's.
Do Fiorentina and Bologna tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bologna in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Fiorentina 1-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.53 xG and Bologna 1.26 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against Bologna attack 1.02 / defence 1.19, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 43% | Draw 25% | Bologna 32%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 53%, Bologna 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.48 PPG, Bologna 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.