Hellas Verona 0-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Como at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A (matchday 36). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hellas Verona stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 home games (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Como have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Como have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Como are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Hellas Verona's 30% BTTS rate and Como's 30% (from Hellas Verona's last 10 home games and Como's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Hellas Verona have won 0, Como 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2025, ended Hellas Verona 1–3 Como — a Como win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Como in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 45% versus Como 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 51% | Como 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hellas Verona surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Como have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.56 xG and Como 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.614 / defence 1.162 | Como attack 1.191 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.110. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.614 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.56. Como bring a tight defence (rating 0.735, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Hellas Verona's projected output down. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 73 games and Como's last 73.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 13% | Draw 26% | Como 61%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 7.72 | Draw 3.84 | Como 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Como (61%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Hellas Verona's lower xG of 0.56 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Hellas Verona's last 10 home games and Como's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 30% (last 10 home games) | Como 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Como | Competition: Serie A, matchday 36 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 13% | Draw 26% | Como 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Hellas Verona 0.56 / Como 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.614 / def 1.162 | Como attack 1.191 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Como (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.56
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Como xG
34%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Como FAQs
What time does Hellas Verona vs Como kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Como kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Como?
Hellas Verona 0 - 1 Como.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Como part of?
Hellas Verona vs Como is a Serie A fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 13% chance of winning, Como a 61% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Como?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Hellas Verona and Como will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Hellas Verona vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.56. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hellas Verona's last 73 games and Como's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 17.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (14.6%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
13%
7.72
26%
3.84
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.6%
Away win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.56
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.09
1.53
Como xG
7.72
13%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
57%
1.74
Win to Nil
3%
35.81
35%
2.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 19.0 | 14.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hellas Verona vs Como Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Como expected to score?
The model projects 0.56 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.53 for Como, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Como?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 73 games, going 13W 18D 42L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.52 PPG from 73 outings (30W 21D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Como carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 5W 10D 21L across their last 36 home games, a 0.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.36 points per game from their last 36 away games (13W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.48 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Como
Current Season
Hellas Verona (Home) vs Como (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Como
Current Season
❓ Hellas Verona vs Como Form FAQs
What form are Hellas Verona and Como in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 13W 18D 42L in their last 73 games (0.78 PPG), while Como have gone 30W 21D 22L in their last 73 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.69 PPG; Como away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Como in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Como have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Como specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
3
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Hellas Verona vs Como H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Como?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Hellas Verona have won 0, Como have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Como last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Hellas Verona 0-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 42%, Como 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Hellas Verona) and 44% (Como).
On the defensive side: Como in 31%; Hellas Verona have failed to score in 53% of games; Como in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Como Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hellas Verona and Como matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 44% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hellas Verona and Como matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 44% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Como matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 72% of Como's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Como edge out Hellas Verona 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Hellas Verona 0-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.56 xG and Como 1.53 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.61 / defence 1.16 against Como attack 1.19 / defence 0.73, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 13% | Draw 26% | Como 61%, with Como to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 51%, Como 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Como's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Como (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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