Cagliari 1-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Hellas Verona in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cagliari's home record at Unipol Domus: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cagliari are significantly better at Unipol Domus than their overall form suggests.
Hellas Verona's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hellas Verona away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Cagliari against 1.20 for Hellas Verona. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cagliari lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Hellas Verona winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 57% versus Hellas Verona 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 47% | Hellas Verona 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.33 xG and Hellas Verona 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.043 / defence 1.275 | Hellas Verona attack 0.741 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.215. Data: 29 Cagliari games / 67 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 41% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 32%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Hellas Verona 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 90% | Hellas Verona 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 41% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Cagliari 1.33 / Hellas Verona 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.043 / def 1.275 | Hellas Verona attack 0.741 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Hellas Verona xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Cagliari vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Cagliari vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Hellas Verona part of?
Cagliari vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 41% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cagliari and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Hellas Verona?
Record (3 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Hellas Verona 2W.
What form are Cagliari and Hellas Verona in?
Cagliari (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cagliari's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.74x) against Cagliari's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
41%
2.47
28%
3.62
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.48
1.15
Hellas Verona xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
8%
11.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.15 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cagliari come into this having played 68 games, going 22W 24D 22L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 0.88 PPG from 68 outings (14W 18D 36L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Cagliari carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cagliari's home form reads 16W 11D 7L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.62 points per game from 34 outings (4W 9D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.88 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 22W 24D 22L in their last 68 games (1.32 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 14W 18D 36L in their last 68 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Hellas Verona away?
Cagliari's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.74 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cagliari won 4-0 on 31 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cagliari
3
Draws
2
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Hellas Verona?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 3, Hellas Verona have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Cagliari 4-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Hellas Verona?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 74%, Hellas Verona 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Cagliari) and 35% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Cagliari's games and 47% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Cagliari's recent games and 35% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 30, as Cagliari and Hellas Verona drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.33 xG and Hellas Verona 1.15 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.04 / defence 1.27 against Hellas Verona attack 0.74 / defence 0.94, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 41% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 32%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 47%, Hellas Verona 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cagliari arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.