Hellas Verona 1-3 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 35%, yet in-form Monza provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hellas Verona vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Monza at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 5 November 2023 at 11:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Hellas Verona's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Monza — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Monza have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Monza — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Hellas Verona have won 0, Monza 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Mar 2023, ended Hellas Verona 1–1 Monza — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (last 48 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Monza trading profile (last 48 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 52% versus Monza 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hellas Verona 40% | Monza 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hellas Verona surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Monza have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.02 xG and Monza 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.826 / defence 1.041 | Monza attack 0.811 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.163. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 48 games and Monza's last 48.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 31% | Monza 34%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.82 | Draw 3.24 | Monza 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hellas Verona as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monza (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 60% (last 10 home games) | Monza 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 31% | Monza 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Hellas Verona 1.02 / Monza 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.826 / def 1.041 | Monza attack 0.811 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Monza xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Monza FAQs
What time does Hellas Verona vs Monza kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Monza kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Hellas Verona 1 - 3 Monza.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Monza part of?
Hellas Verona vs Monza is a Serie A fixture (matchday 11) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 35% chance of winning, Monza a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Hellas Verona and Monza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Hellas Verona vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.83) and Monza's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hellas Verona's last 48 games and Monza's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
35%
2.82
31%
3.24
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.00
0.98
Monza xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hellas Verona vs Monza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 0.98 for Monza, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 10W 12D 26L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Monza's form line: 17W 14D 17L from 48 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 22 home games (7W 4D 11L).
On the road, Monza have gone 8W 6D 8L from their last 22 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.19 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Monza
Blended
Hellas Verona (Home) vs Monza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hellas Verona
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Hellas Verona vs Monza Form FAQs
What form are Hellas Verona and Monza in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 10W 12D 26L in their last 48 games (0.88 PPG), while Monza have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.14 PPG; Monza away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Oct 2024, when Monza won Hellas Verona 0-3 Monza.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
3
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Hellas Verona vs Monza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Monza?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hellas Verona have won 1, Monza have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Monza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Monza 0-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 54%, Monza 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hellas Verona) and 36% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 32% of games; Monza in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Monza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hellas Verona and Monza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 46% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hellas Verona and Monza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 36% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Monza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 68% of Monza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Hellas Verona 1-3 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.02 xG and Monza 0.98 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Monza outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Monza attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 31% | Monza 34%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 40%, Monza 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (48 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (48 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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