Genoa 1-2 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AC Milan at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs AC Milan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus AC Milan in Serie A (matchday 37). Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Genoa's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
AC Milan (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, AC Milan have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Genoa, 1.30 for AC Milan — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to AC Milan, who have 4 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Jan 2026, ended Genoa 1–1 AC Milan — a draw.
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
AC Milan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 50% versus AC Milan 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 46% | AC Milan 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Genoa surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while AC Milan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that AC Milan surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Genoa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.04 xG and AC Milan 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.024 / defence 1.115 | AC Milan attack 0.976 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.131. Data: built from Genoa's last 74 games and AC Milan's last 74.
Result probabilities: Genoa 31% | Draw 29% | AC Milan 40%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.26 | Draw 3.44 | AC Milan 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AC Milan as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (AC Milan 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Milan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genoa 50% (last 10 home games) | AC Milan 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, matchday 37 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 31% | Draw 29% | AC Milan 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Genoa 1.04 / AC Milan 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.024 / def 1.115 | AC Milan attack 0.976 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.23
AC Milan xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs AC Milan FAQs
What time does Genoa vs AC Milan kick off?
Genoa vs AC Milan kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs AC Milan?
Genoa 1 - 2 AC Milan.
Where is Genoa vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs AC Milan part of?
Genoa vs AC Milan is a Serie A fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 31% chance of winning, AC Milan a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Genoa and AC Milan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Genoa vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Genoa's attack rating (1.02) and AC Milan's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AC Milan's attack (0.98x) against Genoa's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 74 games and AC Milan's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
31%
3.26
29%
3.44
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.27
1.23
AC Milan xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.16
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Genoa and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Genoa and 1.23 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 74 games, going 20W 24D 30L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, AC Milan sit at 1.76 PPG from 74 outings (37W 19D 18L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
AC Milan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 11W 11D 15L across their last 37 home games, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, AC Milan have taken 1.73 points per game from their last 37 away games (19W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.50 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
AC Milan
Current Season
Genoa (Home) vs AC Milan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Current Season
AC Milan
Current Season
❓ Genoa vs AC Milan Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 20W 24D 30L in their last 74 games (1.14 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 37W 19D 18L in their last 74 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or AC Milan away?
AC Milan's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.19 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Genoa or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, AC Milan in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Genoa and AC Milan, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
AC Milan have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AC Milan won Genoa 0-3 AC Milan on 1 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 0D 5L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AC Milan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
6
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs AC Milan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AC Milan?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 0, AC Milan have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and AC Milan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Genoa 1-2 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 49%, AC Milan 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Genoa) and 54% (AC Milan).
On the defensive side: AC Milan in 35%; Genoa have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs AC Milan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and AC Milan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Genoa's recent matches and 54% of AC Milan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genoa and AC Milan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Genoa's recent games and 54% of AC Milan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and AC Milan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Genoa's recent matches and 65% of AC Milan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AC Milan edge out Genoa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat Genoa 1-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.04 xG and AC Milan 1.23 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against AC Milan attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 31% | Draw 29% | AC Milan 40%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 46%, AC Milan 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
AC Milan's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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