Lecce 1-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genoa make the trip to Stadio Via del Mare to face Lecce in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Lecce (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lecce's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Via del Mare this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Genoa have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Genoa away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Lecce, 1.40 for Genoa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lecce lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lecce — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Genoa — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 39% versus Genoa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 39% | Genoa 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 0.80 xG and Genoa 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.715 / defence 1.088 | Genoa attack 0.828 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.151. Lecce's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 75 Lecce games / 75 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 28% | Draw 32% | Genoa 40%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Genoa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 40% | Genoa 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 28% | Draw 32% | Genoa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Lecce 0.80 / Genoa 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.715 / def 1.088 | Genoa attack 0.828 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Genoa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Genoa xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Genoa kick off?
Lecce vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Stadio Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Genoa?
Lecce 1 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Lecce vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Genoa part of?
Lecce vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 28% chance of winning, Genoa a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Lecce and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Genoa?
Record (5 meetings): Lecce 1W | Draws 2 | Genoa 2W.
What form are Lecce and Genoa in?
Lecce (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Genoa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lecce's attack rating (0.71) and Genoa's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.83x) against Lecce's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
28%
3.64
32%
3.11
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Lecce xG
Total xG
1.84
1.04
Genoa xG
3.64
28%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.82
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 16.5 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Lecce and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Lecce and 1.04 for Genoa, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lecce's recent record stands at 17W 18D 40L from 75 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 20W 24D 31L across 75 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Lecce against 1.12 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 8W 11D 18L from 37 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 9W 13D 15L across 37 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lecce are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.04 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Genoa in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 17W 18D 40L in their last 75 games (0.92 PPG), while Genoa have gone 20W 24D 31L in their last 75 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 0.95 PPG; Genoa away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lecce have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lecce
2
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Lecce have won 2, Genoa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Lecce 1-0 Genoa.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 38%, Genoa 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lecce) and 43% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 51% of games; Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Lecce's recent matches and 51% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lecce's recent games and 43% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Genoa tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Genoa in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lecce defy the odds to beat Genoa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Genoa 1-0 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.80 xG and Genoa 1.04 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genoa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against Genoa attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 28% | Draw 32% | Genoa 40%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Lecce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 39%, Genoa 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Genoa's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 0.92 PPG, Genoa 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lecce win broke the near-deadlock. Lecce (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.