Hellas Verona 1-3 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AC Milan at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs AC Milan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 36 as Hellas Verona welcome AC Milan to Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AC Milan — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AC Milan's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. AC Milan's 2.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Hellas Verona's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 0, AC Milan 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–3 with AC Milan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
AC Milan trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 77% and AC Milan 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 66% | AC Milan 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.12 xG and AC Milan 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.099 / defence 1.077 | AC Milan attack 1.035 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.320. Data: 35 Hellas Verona games / 35 AC Milan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 28% | Draw 28% | AC Milan 44%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | AC Milan 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Milan at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Milan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 70% | AC Milan 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 28% | Draw 28% | AC Milan 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Hellas Verona 1.12 / AC Milan 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.099 / def 1.077 | AC Milan attack 1.035 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.47
AC Milan xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs AC Milan kick off?
Hellas Verona vs AC Milan kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs AC Milan?
Hellas Verona 1 - 3 AC Milan.
Where is Hellas Verona vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs AC Milan part of?
Hellas Verona vs AC Milan is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 28% chance of winning, AC Milan a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hellas Verona and AC Milan will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and AC Milan?
Record (1 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 0 | AC Milan 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and AC Milan in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. AC Milan (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 1.10x the league average against AC Milan's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AC Milan's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
28%
3.60
28%
3.55
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.60
1.47
AC Milan xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
6%
15.73
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.47 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 14W 10D 11L from 35 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
AC Milan, meanwhile, have gone 23W 8D 4L across 35 games — 2.20 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AC Milan by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 9W 3D 5L from 17 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Milan's away record stands at 12W 4D 1L across 17 trips, a 2.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.74 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Defensively: AC Milan in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
AC Milan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 14W 10D 11L in their last 35 games (1.49 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 23W 8D 4L in their last 35 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or AC Milan away?
AC Milan's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.76 PPG; AC Milan away: 2.35 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, AC Milan in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and AC Milan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AC Milan have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Dec 2025, when AC Milan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting AC Milan specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Hellas Verona
0
Draws
10
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and AC Milan?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 0, AC Milan have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and AC Milan last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hellas Verona at 76%, AC Milan at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Hellas Verona and 65% for AC Milan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AC Milan in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play AC Milan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Hellas Verona's games and 65% of AC Milan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs AC Milan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Hellas Verona's matches and 65% of AC Milan's.
Do Hellas Verona and AC Milan tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, AC Milan in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Milan cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat Hellas Verona 1-3 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.12 xG and AC Milan 1.47 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AC Milan outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.10 / defence 1.08 against AC Milan attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 28% | Draw 28% | AC Milan 44%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 66%, AC Milan 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
AC Milan's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AC Milan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.