Empoli 0-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 8 as Empoli welcome Udinese to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 October 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Empoli are significantly better at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena than their overall form suggests.
Udinese — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 0.70 PPG, Udinese 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Empoli's 30% rate and Udinese's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Empoli, 2 for Udinese and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Empoli in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Udinese in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 42% versus Udinese 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 36% | Udinese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.20 xG and Udinese 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.720 / defence 0.960 | Udinese attack 0.781 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.085. Empoli's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Empoli games / 45 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 44% | Draw 33% | Udinese 24%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Udinese 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 30% | Udinese 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Friday 6 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 44% | Draw 33% | Udinese 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Empoli 1.20 / Udinese 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.720 / def 0.960 | Udinese attack 0.781 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Empoli (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Udinese xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Udinese kick off?
Empoli vs Udinese kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 6 October 2023 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Udinese?
Empoli 0 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Empoli vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Udinese part of?
Empoli vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 44% chance of winning, Udinese a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Empoli and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Udinese?
Record (4 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 1 | Udinese 2W.
What form are Empoli and Udinese in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Udinese (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.72x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
44%
2.29
33%
3.07
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.01
0.81
Udinese xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
7%
13.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Empoli and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Empoli and 0.81 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 13D 21L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Udinese's form line: 11W 17D 17L from 45 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.02 PPG, Udinese on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (9W 3D 10L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 5W 6D 11L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.13 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Udinese in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 11W 13D 21L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Udinese have gone 11W 17D 17L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Udinese away?
Empoli's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.36 PPG; Udinese away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when Udinese won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Empoli
4
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Udinese have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Udinese 3-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 36%, Udinese 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Empoli) and 46% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 36% of games; Udinese in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Empoli's recent matches and 46% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Empoli's recent games and 46% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Empoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Udinese finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.20 xG and Udinese 0.81 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Empoli fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Udinese landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.72 / defence 0.96 against Udinese attack 0.78 / defence 1.16, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 44% | Draw 33% | Udinese 24%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 36%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.02 PPG, Udinese 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.