Empoli 0-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Empoli at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Empoli face Udinese.

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Fixture Analysis

Empoli welcome Udinese to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Serie A (matchday 8). Kick-off is Friday 6 October 2023 at 18:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Empoli have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Empoli at home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Empoli are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Udinese — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Udinese have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 0.70 PPG, Udinese 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Empoli's 30% BTTS rate and Udinese's 30% (from Empoli's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Empoli have won 1, Udinese 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2023, ended Empoli 0–1 Udinese — a Udinese win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Empoli in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Udinese in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 42% versus Udinese 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 36% | Udinese 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Empoli surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while Udinese have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.20 xG and Udinese 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.720 / defence 0.960 | Udinese attack 0.781 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.085. Empoli's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Udinese's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Empoli's last 45 games and Udinese's last 45.

Result probabilities: Empoli 44% | Draw 33% | Udinese 24%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.29 | Draw 3.07 | Udinese 4.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Empoli 30% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 30% (last 10 away games).

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