Fiorentina 0-2 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 9 as Fiorentina welcome Empoli to Stadio Artemio Franchi. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 October 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Empoli have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Fiorentina have the edge — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 1, Empoli 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Empoli trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 56% versus Empoli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 48% | Empoli 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 2.80 xG and Empoli 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.293 / defence 1.007 | Empoli attack 0.716 / defence 1.545. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.151. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 2.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.545 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Fiorentina games / 46 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 78% | Draw 15% | Empoli 8%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | Empoli 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (78%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.63 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 60% | Empoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Monday 23 Oct 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 78% | Draw 15% | Empoli 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 53% | xG Fiorentina 2.80 / Empoli 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.293 / def 1.007 | Empoli attack 0.716 / def 1.545 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.80
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Empoli xG
53%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Empoli kick off?
Fiorentina vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 23 October 2023 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Fiorentina 0 - 2 Empoli.
Where is Fiorentina vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Empoli part of?
Fiorentina vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 78% chance of winning, Empoli a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fiorentina and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Empoli?
Record (4 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 2 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Empoli in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Empoli (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.80. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
78%
1.29
15%
6.88
8%
12.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.80
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.63
0.83
Empoli xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.88
15%
Draw
12.74
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
6%
16.40
Win to Nil
34%
2.95
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.83 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina come into this having played 46 games, going 20W 13D 13L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.02 PPG from 46 outings (11W 14D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fiorentina's home form reads 11W 7D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.68 points per game from 22 outings (2W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.83 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Empoli in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 20W 13D 13L in their last 46 games (1.59 PPG), while Empoli have gone 11W 14D 21L in their last 46 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Empoli away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.82 PPG; Empoli away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Empoli runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fiorentina's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
4
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 2, Empoli have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 64%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Fiorentina) and 36% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Fiorentina's games and 50% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Fiorentina's recent games and 36% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Empoli tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Empoli in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fiorentina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Fiorentina 0-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 2.80 xG and Empoli 0.83 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Empoli outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.29 / defence 1.01 against Empoli attack 0.72 / defence 1.54, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 78% | Draw 15% | Empoli 8%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a Empoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 48%, Empoli 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.