Cagliari 1-4 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 8 as Cagliari welcome AS Roma to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 October 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cagliari have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cagliari are significantly better at Unipol Domus than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cagliari, 2 for AS Roma and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
AS Roma trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 51% versus AS Roma 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 42% | AS Roma 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.19 xG and AS Roma 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.641 / defence 1.255 | AS Roma attack 0.972 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.066. Cagliari's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AS Roma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Cagliari games / 45 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 33% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 38%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | AS Roma 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 70% | AS Roma 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 33% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Cagliari 1.19 / AS Roma 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.641 / def 1.255 | AS Roma attack 0.972 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.30
AS Roma xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs AS Roma kick off?
Cagliari vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Cagliari 1 - 4 AS Roma.
Where is Cagliari vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs AS Roma part of?
Cagliari vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 33% chance of winning, AS Roma a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cagliari and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and AS Roma?
Record (2 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Cagliari and AS Roma in?
Cagliari (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
33%
3.07
30%
3.37
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.49
1.30
AS Roma xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
9%
11.26
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cagliari and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.30 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cagliari come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 18D 12L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.58 PPG from 45 outings (20W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.40 PPG, AS Roma on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cagliari's home form reads 11W 8D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.27 points per game from 22 outings (7W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.44 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; AS Roma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 15W 18D 12L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 20W 11D 14L in their last 45 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or AS Roma away?
Cagliari's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.86 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Cagliari or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, AS Roma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2024, when AS Roma won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cagliari
1
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, AS Roma have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cagliari at 68%, AS Roma at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cagliari) and 50% (AS Roma).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cagliari's games and 68% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cagliari's recent games and 50% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and AS Roma tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Cagliari 1-4 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.19 xG and AS Roma 1.30 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 1.30 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.64 / defence 1.25 against AS Roma attack 0.97 / defence 1.29, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 33% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 38%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 42%, AS Roma 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.40 PPG, AS Roma 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.