Genoa 0-1 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AC Milan at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs AC Milan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus AC Milan in Serie A (matchday 8). Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Genoa's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Genoa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
AC Milan (all games): 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 — 2.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, AC Milan have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, AC Milan are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Genoa, 2 for AC Milan and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2022, ended Genoa 0–2 AC Milan — a AC Milan win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
AC Milan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 40% versus AC Milan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 42% | AC Milan 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.84 xG and AC Milan 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.228 / defence 1.354 | AC Milan attack 1.312 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.075. AC Milan have an above-average attack rating of 1.312, which lifts their away xG to 1.91. Genoa's defence rating of 1.354 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AC Milan's projected output up. Data: built from Genoa's last 7 games and AC Milan's last 45.
Result probabilities: Genoa 37% | Draw 24% | AC Milan 39%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.73 | Draw 4.17 | AC Milan 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.91) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AC Milan as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Milan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Genoa's last 10 home games and AC Milan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genoa 50% (last 10 home games) | AC Milan 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 37% | Draw 24% | AC Milan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Genoa 1.84 / AC Milan 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.228 / def 1.354 | AC Milan attack 1.312 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.91
AC Milan xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs AC Milan FAQs
What time does Genoa vs AC Milan kick off?
Genoa vs AC Milan kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs AC Milan?
Genoa 0 - 1 AC Milan.
Where is Genoa vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs AC Milan part of?
Genoa vs AC Milan is a Serie A fixture (matchday 8) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 37% chance of winning, AC Milan a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Genoa and AC Milan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genoa vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Genoa's attack rating (1.23) and AC Milan's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AC Milan's attack (1.31x) against Genoa's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 7 games and AC Milan's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
37%
2.73
24%
4.17
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Genoa xG
Total xG
3.75
1.91
AC Milan xG
2.73
37%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
15%
6.75
16%
6.31
Win to Nil
5%
18.42
6%
16.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Genoa and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Genoa and 1.91 for AC Milan, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 45 games, going 23W 13D 9L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, AC Milan sit at 1.96 PPG from 45 outings (26W 10D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Genoa against 1.96 for AC Milan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 13W 7D 2L across their last 22 home games, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, AC Milan have taken 1.59 points per game from their last 22 away games (10W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.76 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Milan in 60%.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
AC Milan
Early Season
Genoa (Home) vs AC Milan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Early Season
AC Milan
Early Season
❓ Genoa vs AC Milan Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 23W 13D 9L in their last 45 games (1.82 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 26W 10D 9L in their last 45 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or AC Milan away?
Genoa's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 2.09 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Genoa or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, AC Milan in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Genoa and AC Milan, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
AC Milan have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AC Milan won Genoa 0-3 AC Milan on 1 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 0D 5L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AC Milan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
6
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs AC Milan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AC Milan?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 0, AC Milan have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and AC Milan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Genoa 1-2 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 36%, AC Milan 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Genoa) and 59% (AC Milan).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs AC Milan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and AC Milan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Genoa's recent matches and 59% of AC Milan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genoa and AC Milan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Genoa's recent games and 59% of AC Milan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and AC Milan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Genoa's recent matches and 73% of AC Milan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AC Milan edge out Genoa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat Genoa 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.84 xG and AC Milan 1.91 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Genoa fell 1.8 short of their projected output. AC Milan landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.23 / defence 1.35 against AC Milan attack 1.31 / defence 1.06, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 37% | Draw 24% | AC Milan 39%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, AC Milan 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AC Milan's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.82 PPG, AC Milan 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Milan win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. AC Milan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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