AS Roma 2-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Empoli meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 February 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Empoli have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Empoli have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for AS Roma against 1.50 for Empoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours AS Roma, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Empoli — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with AS Roma winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AS Roma and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Empoli — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 48% versus Empoli 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 47% | Empoli 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.17 xG and Empoli 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.922 / defence 0.710 | Empoli attack 0.959 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.201. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.710 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 AS Roma games / 58 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 44% | Draw 31% | Empoli 25%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Empoli 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Empoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 44% | Draw 31% | Empoli 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG AS Roma 1.17 / Empoli 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.922 / def 0.710 | Empoli attack 0.959 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Empoli xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Empoli kick off?
AS Roma vs Empoli kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Empoli?
AS Roma 2 - 0 Empoli.
Where is AS Roma vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Empoli part of?
AS Roma vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 44% chance of winning, Empoli a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both AS Roma and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Empoli?
Record (3 meetings): AS Roma 3W | Draws 0 | Empoli 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Empoli in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Empoli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (0.92) and Empoli's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.96x) against AS Roma's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
44%
2.28
31%
3.24
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
AS Roma xG
Total xG
1.99
0.82
Empoli xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.82 for Empoli, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma come into this having played 58 games, going 29W 13D 16L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.16 PPG from 58 outings (16W 19D 23L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AS Roma's home form reads 15W 7D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.14 points per game from 28 outings (7W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.19 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Empoli in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 29W 13D 16L in their last 58 games (1.72 PPG), while Empoli have gone 16W 19D 23L in their last 58 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Empoli away?
AS Roma's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.86 PPG; Empoli away: 1.14 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Empoli in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 7-0 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
AS Roma
0
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 6, Empoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Empoli 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Empoli?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 36%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (AS Roma) and 36% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Empoli in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of AS Roma's recent matches and 50% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of AS Roma's recent games and 36% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Empoli tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Empoli in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Empoli 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.17 xG and Empoli 0.82 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Empoli landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 0.71 against Empoli attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 44% | Draw 31% | Empoli 25%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 47%, Empoli 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Empoli's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.