Bologna 3-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bologna (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bologna face Salernitana.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salernitana make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Monday 1 April 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Bologna (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bologna's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Salernitana have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Salernitana's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Bologna's 2.20 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Salernitana's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Bologna, 0 for Salernitana and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Salernitana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 57% versus Salernitana 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | Salernitana 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 2.29 xG and Salernitana 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.260 / defence 0.660 | Salernitana attack 0.798 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.220. Bologna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bologna's defence rating of 0.660 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Bologna games / 67 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 74% | Draw 17% | Salernitana 9%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.35 | Draw 5.88 | Salernitana 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 20% | Salernitana 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 74% | Draw 17% | Salernitana 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 43% | xG Bologna 2.29 / Salernitana 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.260 / def 0.660 | Salernitana attack 0.798 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Bologna (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Salernitana xG
43%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Salernitana kick off?
Bologna vs Salernitana kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Salernitana?
Bologna 3 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Bologna vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Salernitana part of?
Bologna vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 74% chance of winning, Salernitana a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bologna and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Salernitana?
Record (5 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 3 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Bologna and Salernitana in?
Bologna (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Salernitana (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bologna's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.80x) against Bologna's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 3-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
74%
1.34
17%
5.89
9%
11.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.93
0.64
Salernitana xG
1.34
74%
Home win
5.89
17%
Draw
11.61
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
10%
9.85
Win to Nil
39%
2.56
1%
114.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bologna and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Bologna and 0.64 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Salernitana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 29W 21D 17L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Salernitana's form line: 11W 23D 33L from 67 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Bologna are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.94 PPG from 33 outings (18W 10D 5L).
On the road, Salernitana have gone 3W 13D 17L from 33 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.06 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Salernitana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 29W 21D 17L in their last 67 games (1.61 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 11W 23D 33L in their last 67 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Salernitana away?
Bologna's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.94 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Salernitana have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Bologna 3-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Salernitana?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 39%, Salernitana 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bologna) and 52% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Salernitana in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bologna's recent matches and 54% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bologna's recent games and 52% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Salernitana tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bologna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Salernitana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Salernitana 3-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 2.29 xG and Salernitana 0.64 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.26 / defence 0.66 against Salernitana attack 0.80 / defence 1.35, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 74% | Draw 17% | Salernitana 9%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, Salernitana 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Salernitana's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.