Cremonese 1-2 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Torino at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 3 as Cremonese welcome Torino to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cremonese are significantly better at Stadio Giovanni Zini than their overall form suggests.
Torino — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Torino have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Torino have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.30 PPG, Torino 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Torino in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 58% versus Torino 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 50% | Torino 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.10 xG and Torino 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | Torino attack 1.073 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.171. Data: 2 Cremonese games / 40 Torino games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 27% | Draw 30% | Torino 43%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Torino 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 70% | Torino 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 27% | Draw 30% | Torino 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Cremonese 1.10 / Torino 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.860 / def 1.150 | Torino attack 1.073 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Torino (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Torino xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Torino kick off?
Cremonese vs Torino kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Torino?
Cremonese 1 - 2 Torino.
Where is Cremonese vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Torino part of?
Cremonese vs Torino is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 27% chance of winning, Torino a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cremonese and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Torino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Torino in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Torino (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.86) and Torino's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
27%
3.72
30%
3.33
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.54
1.45
Torino xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
6%
15.78
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.45 for Torino, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 20W 9D 11L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Torino's form line: 14W 12D 14L from 40 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Torino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.72 PPG, Torino on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 2.05 PPG from 19 outings (11W 6D 2L).
On the road, Torino have gone 6W 6D 7L from 19 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.20 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Torino
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Torino in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 20W 9D 11L in their last 40 games (1.72 PPG), while Torino have gone 14W 12D 14L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Torino away?
Cremonese's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 2.05 PPG; Torino away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cremonese's record when hosting Torino specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
2
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Torino?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Torino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Cremonese 0-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Torino see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 63%, Torino 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 47% for Cremonese and 21% for Torino.
On the defensive side: Torino in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Cremonese's recent matches and 42% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 21% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Torino tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Torino in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Torino edge out Cremonese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Cremonese 1-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.10 xG and Torino 1.45 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Torino attack 1.07 / defence 0.94, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 27% | Draw 30% | Torino 43%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 50%, Torino 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Torino's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.72 PPG, Torino 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.