Lecce 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 35%, yet in-form Lecce provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lecce vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lecce and Empoli meet at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lecce have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Lecce have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lecce at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Empoli have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Lecce's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Empoli's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Lecce half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Empoli half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 52% versus Empoli 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 45% | Empoli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.13 xG and Empoli 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.827 / defence 1.218 | Empoli attack 0.825 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.147. Data: 2 Lecce games / 40 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 34% | Draw 32% | Empoli 35%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Empoli 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lecce (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 50% | Empoli 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 34% | Draw 32% | Empoli 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Lecce 1.13 / Empoli 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.827 / def 1.218 | Empoli attack 0.825 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Empoli (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Empoli xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Empoli kick off?
Lecce vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Empoli?
Lecce 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Lecce vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Empoli part of?
Lecce vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 34% chance of winning, Empoli a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lecce and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lecce and Empoli in?
Lecce (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lecce's attack at 0.83x the league average against Empoli's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.82x) against Lecce's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 2/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
34%
2.98
32%
3.13
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.28
1.15
Empoli xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lecce and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Lecce and 1.15 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lecce come into this having played 40 games, going 19W 14D 7L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Lecce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.05 PPG from 40 outings (10W 12D 18L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lecce carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lecce's home form reads 13W 5D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Lecce are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.20 points per game from 20 outings (6W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lecce are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.25 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 62%.
Defensively: Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Empoli in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 19W 14D 7L in their last 40 games (1.78 PPG), while Empoli have gone 10W 12D 18L in their last 40 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Empoli away?
Lecce's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 2.20 PPG; Empoli away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Lecce or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Empoli in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lecce have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lecce
3
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Lecce have won 2, Empoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Empoli 1-3 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Empoli?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 55%, Empoli 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Lecce) and 35% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Empoli in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Lecce's recent matches and 45% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Lecce's recent games and 35% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Empoli tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Empoli in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce and Empoli finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.13 xG and Empoli 1.15 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Empoli attack 0.82 / defence 0.98, drawn from 2/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 34% | Draw 32% | Empoli 35%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 45%, Empoli 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.