Inter 3-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza to take on Inter. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 30 August 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inter at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Cremonese have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Inter have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Inter in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Cremonese in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 58% versus Cremonese 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 63% | Cremonese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 2.30 xG and Cremonese 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.355 / defence 0.838 | Cremonese attack 0.893 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.100. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Inter's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Inter games / 3 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 68% | Draw 22% | Cremonese 10%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Cremonese 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Inter (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Inter 50% | Cremonese 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 68% | Draw 22% | Cremonese 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 52% | xG Inter 2.30 / Cremonese 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.355 / def 0.838 | Cremonese attack 0.893 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Inter (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Inter xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Cremonese xG
52%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Cremonese kick off?
Inter vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Cremonese?
Inter 3 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Inter vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Cremonese part of?
Inter vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 68% chance of winning, Cremonese a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Inter and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inter and Cremonese in?
Inter (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Inter's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
68%
1.46
22%
4.60
10%
10.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Inter xG
Total xG
3.12
0.82
Cremonese xG
1.46
68%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
10.24
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
10%
9.94
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
1%
101.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Inter and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Inter and 0.82 for Cremonese, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Inter's recent record stands at 27W 9D 5L from 41 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 20W 9D 12L across 41 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Inter by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cremonese heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Inter have managed 15W 3D 2L from 20 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 9W 3D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Inter are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.46 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 27W 9D 5L in their last 41 games (2.20 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 20W 9D 12L in their last 41 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Cremonese away?
Inter's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.40 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Inter or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cremonese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Inter have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when Inter won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Inter
0
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Inter have won 4, Cremonese have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Cremonese 0-2 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Cremonese?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 50%, Cremonese 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Inter and 55% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Inter's recent matches and 55% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Inter's matches and 55% of Cremonese's.
Do Inter and Cremonese tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Cremonese 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 2.30 xG and Cremonese 0.82 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.35 / defence 0.84 against Cremonese attack 0.89 / defence 1.25, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 68% | Draw 22% | Cremonese 10%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 63%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.68. Form held, and they took the win. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.