Monza 1-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Monza host Udinese at U-Power Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Monza — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Monza have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Monza at 1.60 PPG versus Udinese's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Monza in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Udinese in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 55% versus Udinese 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 58% | Udinese 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.39 xG and Udinese 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.848 / defence 1.229 | Udinese attack 1.253 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.173. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Monza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Udinese have an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 2 Monza games / 40 Udinese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Monza 28% | Draw 26% | Udinese 46%. Fair-value odds: Monza 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Udinese 2.17. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Monza 50% | Udinese 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 28% | Draw 26% | Udinese 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Monza 1.39 / Udinese 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.848 / def 1.229 | Udinese attack 1.253 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Udinese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Udinese xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Udinese kick off?
Monza vs Udinese kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 26 August 2022 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Udinese?
Monza 1 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Monza vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Udinese part of?
Monza vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 28% chance of winning, Udinese a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Monza and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Udinese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monza and Udinese in?
Monza (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Monza's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
28%
3.57
26%
3.83
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Monza xG
Total xG
3.19
1.81
Udinese xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
16%
6.09
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
5%
21.74
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Monza and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Monza and 1.81 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Monza come into this having played 40 games, going 22W 7D 11L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.20 PPG from 40 outings (11W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monza carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Monza's home form reads 14W 3D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.10 points per game from 20 outings (5W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Monza are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.58 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Udinese in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 22W 7D 11L in their last 40 games (1.82 PPG), while Udinese have gone 11W 15D 14L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Udinese away?
Monza's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.25 PPG; Udinese away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Monza or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Udinese in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Monza's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Monza
3
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Udinese?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 1, Udinese have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Udinese 1-2 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 55%, Udinese 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Monza and 60% for Udinese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Monza's games and 55% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Monza's matches and 60% of Udinese's.
Do Monza and Udinese tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Udinese in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Monza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Monza 1-2 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.39 xG and Udinese 1.81 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Udinese attack 1.25 / defence 1.21, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Monza 28% | Draw 26% | Udinese 46%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 58%, Udinese 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Monza (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.