Hellas Verona 0-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atalanta at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Atalanta travel to Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi to take on Hellas Verona. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Atalanta have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atalanta's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hellas Verona 1.20 PPG, Atalanta 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 1, Atalanta 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Hellas Verona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Atalanta in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 78% and Atalanta 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 65% | Atalanta 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.23 xG and Atalanta 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.090 / defence 1.357 | Atalanta attack 1.168 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.178. Data: 40 Hellas Verona games / 40 Atalanta games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 23% | Draw 26% | Atalanta 50%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Atalanta 2.00. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 70% | Atalanta 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 23% | Draw 26% | Atalanta 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Hellas Verona 1.23 / Atalanta 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.090 / def 1.357 | Atalanta attack 1.168 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Atalanta xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Atalanta kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Atalanta kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Hellas Verona 0 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Atalanta part of?
Hellas Verona vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 23% chance of winning, Atalanta a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hellas Verona and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Atalanta?
Record (2 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 0 | Atalanta 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Atalanta in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Atalanta (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 1.09x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
23%
4.31
26%
3.80
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.10
1.87
Atalanta xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
15%
6.48
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
4%
27.92
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.87 for Atalanta, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 40 games, going 14W 12D 14L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.58 PPG from 40 outings (17W 12D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Atalanta, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 1.35 PPG, Atalanta on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 9W 3D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 2.10 points per game from 20 outings (13W 3D 4L). That's actually stronger than their 1.58 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.70 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Atalanta in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Early Season
Atalanta
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 14W 12D 14L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 17W 12D 11L in their last 40 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.50 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Atalanta won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
7
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 2, Atalanta have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Atalanta 1-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hellas Verona at 75%, Atalanta at 55%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Hellas Verona and 55% for Atalanta. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Atalanta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hellas Verona's games and 55% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Hellas Verona's matches and 55% of Atalanta's.
Do Hellas Verona and Atalanta tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Hellas Verona 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Hellas Verona 0-1 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.23 xG and Atalanta 1.87 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Atalanta landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.09 / defence 1.36 against Atalanta attack 1.17 / defence 0.82, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 23% | Draw 26% | Atalanta 50%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 65%, Atalanta 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Atalanta's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 1.35 PPG, Atalanta 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.