Juventus 1-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Udinese make the trip to Allianz Stadium to face Juventus in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 January 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juventus have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventus have posted 7W 3D 0L at Allianz Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium.
Udinese's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Udinese have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Juventus. A 1.20 PPG lead over Udinese (2.40 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Juventus, 0 for Udinese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Juventus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 44% versus Udinese 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 35% | Udinese 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.75 xG and Udinese 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.330 / defence 0.691 | Udinese attack 1.082 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.115. Juventus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.330 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Juventus's defence rating of 0.691 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Juventus games / 54 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 58% | Draw 25% | Udinese 17%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Juventus 40% | Udinese 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Jan 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 58% | Draw 25% | Udinese 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Juventus 1.75 / Udinese 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.330 / def 0.691 | Udinese attack 1.082 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Juventus (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Udinese xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Udinese kick off?
Juventus vs Udinese kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 January 2023 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Udinese?
Juventus 1 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Juventus vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Udinese part of?
Juventus vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 58% chance of winning, Udinese a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Juventus and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Udinese?
Record (2 meetings): Juventus 1W | Draws 1 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Juventus and Udinese in?
Juventus (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Udinese (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Juventus's attack at 1.33x the league average against Udinese's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (1.08x) against Juventus's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
58%
1.72
25%
3.97
17%
6.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.58
0.83
Udinese xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
6.01
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
3%
34.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Juventus and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Juventus and 0.83 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Juventus have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 30W 14D 10L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 17W 21D 16L from 54 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Juventus have posted 2.04 PPG from 27 outings (16W 7D 4L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 8W 10D 9L from 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventus are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.59 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 63%.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Udinese in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 30W 14D 10L in their last 54 games (1.93 PPG), while Udinese have gone 17W 21D 16L in their last 54 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Udinese away?
Juventus's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.04 PPG; Udinese away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Juventus or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Udinese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Juventus have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 0-3 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Juventus
1
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 8, Udinese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Udinese?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 37%, Udinese 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Juventus) and 59% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Udinese in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Juventus's recent matches and 59% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Juventus's recent games and 59% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Udinese tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Udinese in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Udinese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Udinese 1-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.75 xG and Udinese 0.83 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Udinese landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.33 / defence 0.69 against Udinese attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 58% | Draw 25% | Udinese 17%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 35%, Udinese 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Udinese's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.